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Contrarian bets · where smart money is split

Where is smart money arguing?

463 tickers where ≥2 superinvestors were buying while ≥2 others were selling over the last 4 quarters. The active-disagreement signal.

Consensus bets are safer but less interesting. Contrarian bets are where one side of the smart-money trade is wrong — and when a consensus forms, it moves the price.

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Full list · top 20

Every active debate

Sorted by total disagreement activity. Click any ticker for the full conviction breakdown.

METAMeta Platforms
−2conviction
Buying (17)
Selling (12)
MSFTMicrosoft
−17conviction
GOOGLAlphabet
−31conviction
TSMTaiwan Semi
−2conviction
AMZNAmazon
−7conviction
VVisa
−14conviction
Buying (10)
Selling (8)
BABAAlibaba
+25conviction
Buying (8)
Selling (7)
NVDANVIDIA
+1conviction
UNHUnitedHealth
−24conviction
Selling (10)
AVGOAVGO
−12conviction
SESea Limited
−4conviction
VSTVistra Corp
−2conviction
Buying (8)
Selling (6)
GOOGAlphabet Class C
+2conviction
Buying (8)
Selling (6)
TMOTMO
−23conviction
INTUINTU
−22conviction
Buying (5)
COFCapital One Financial
−18conviction
SPOTSpotify
−6conviction
MAMastercard
−4conviction
Buying (6)
Selling (7)
AAPLApple Inc.
−26conviction
AMDAMD
−23conviction
How we find contrarian bets

Overlap of buyers and sellers, last 4 quarters

We scan every distinct 13F move across the last 4 quarters ( Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025) for each ticker. A ticker qualifies as contrarian if ≥2 superinvestors were buying (new or add) AND ≥2 others were selling (trim or exit) in the same window.

This is the inverse of /crowded-trades (where everyone is piled in the same direction). It’s also the signal Dataroma can’t show — their leaderboards don’t cross-tab buyers and sellers.

Contrarian bets carry high variance — one side of every disagreement is wrong. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Deep dive

Reading for your research

Optional background reading on interpreting company disclosures and investing methods. These books do not validate a signal or predict returns.

Amazon affiliate links — as an Amazon Associate, HoldLens earns from qualifying purchases and membership trials at no extra cost to you. These are books we genuinely recommend. Not investment advice; always do your own research.

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