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Signal dossier · Q1 2026

COF logoCOF

Capital One Financial · Financials

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.
ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale
Net selling
−17
on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling
3 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
−17
Buy component
+5
Dissent penalty
−22
Unanimity bonus
0
Quality differential
-3
Info density
+8
Buyers / Sellers
1 / 3
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
−17
Smart money (13F)
+8
Insider activity (Form 4)
-2
Track record (CAGR)
-5
Trend streak
+0
Concentration
+4
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−22
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 1·Buyers: 21·Sellers: 19·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9.6% ±3.4%·How this is computed
Why this score?
See the 9 factors that produced −17 for COF

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

FactorContribution
Smart money+8
Insider activity-2
Track record-5
Trend streak0
Concentration+4
Contrarian bonus0
8-K events0
Dissent+22
Crowding0
Sum (clamped −100/+100)−17

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For COF specifically: 21 buyers vs 19 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat
+0 owners over 8Q
1
1
2
2
3
2
3
2
1
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on COF — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
21 buys · 19 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: Heavy accumulation
Q4 2025(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.40%
Oakmark Funds
3.30%
Duquesne Family Office
0.00%
Lone Pine Capital
4.10%
Viking Global Investors
1.90%
Maverick Capital
3.70%
Q3 2025(8 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
0.20%
Viking Global Investors
4.10%
Gotham Asset Management
0.30%
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Lone Pine Capital
4.00%
Maverick Capital
3.30%
Oakmark Funds
3.10%
Brave Warrior Advisors
4.80%
Q2 2025(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Viking Global Investors
3.50%
Gotham Asset Management
0.30%
Maverick Capital
5.00%
Brave Warrior Advisors
8.90%
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Duquesne Family Office
0.00%
Q1 2025(7 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
1.20%
Viking Global Investors
2.60%
Gotham Asset Management
0.20%
Maverick Capital
2.90%
Brave Warrior Advisors
2.60%
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Oakmark Funds
3.00%
Q4 2024(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Lone Pine Capital
4.30%
Gotham Asset Management
0.20%
Maverick Capital
2.20%
Brave Warrior Advisors
0.00%
Berkshire Hathaway
0.50%
Oakmark Funds
2.80%
Q3 2024(3 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Gotham Asset Management
0.10%
Berkshire Hathaway
0.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)
24 buys · 6 sells from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER BUYING
InsiderValue
Haggerty Kaitlin
Chief Human Resources Officer
$22K
Haggerty Kaitlin
Chief Human Resources Officer
$22K
Haggerty Kaitlin
Chief Human Resources Officer
$240K
Cooper Matthew W
General Counsel & Corp Secy
$644K
Haggerty Kaitlin
Chief Human Resources Officer
$240K
Cooper Matthew W
General Counsel & Corp Secy
$644K
williams craig a.
Director
$0
Wong Jennifer L.
Director
$0
Serra Eileen
Director
$0
SHEPHERD MICHAEL
Director
$0
SHATTUCK MAYO A III
Director
$0
RASKIND PETER E
Director
$0
Locoh-Donou Francois
Director
$0
Leenaars Cornelis PAJ
Director
$0
Killalea Peter Thomas
Director
$0
Harford Suni P
Director
$0
Detrick Christine Rose
Director
$0
Harford Suni P
Director
$0
williams craig a.
Director
$0
Archibong Ime
Director
$0
Serra Eileen
Director
$0
SHEPHERD MICHAEL
Director
$0
Wong Jennifer L.
Director
$0
Killalea Peter Thomas
Director
$0
Detrick Christine Rose
Director
$0
Leenaars Cornelis PAJ
Director
$0
Locoh-Donou Francois
Director
$0
RASKIND PETER E
Director
$0
SHATTUCK MAYO A III
Director
$0
Archibong Ime
Director
$0

Latest news

Recent headlines for COF — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on COF

Each bar is one manager’s position size in COF as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

17-year holding. Best-in-class credit underwriting.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for COF, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -17 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.