Signal dossier · Q4 2025

VST

Vistra Corp · Utilities

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

Score: +22 / +100

WEAK BUY

2 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+22

Buy component

+22

Dissent penalty

−0

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 0

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Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on VST for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on VST — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

12 buys · 0 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Aggressive Vistra add — AI data center demand thesis.	Add 25.00%	+1.20M	11.40%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Adding to Vistra — power demand from AI.	Add 18.00%	+940K	12.80%

Q3 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group AI data center thesis — big add.	Add 30.00%	+1.38M	9.60%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same data center thesis as Klarman.	Add 25.00%	+1.30M	11.20%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First of three consecutive quarters building Vistra.	Add 22.00%	+1.00M	7.20%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — 3 Q build.	Add 18.00%	+850K	9.00%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Klarman's first Vistra position — start of the 3 Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.20M	5.90%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Howard Marks's first Vistra position — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.60M	7.80%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Major Vistra add — start of the multi-quarter build.	Add 28.00%	+1.24M	5.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — start of build.	Add 22.00%	+1.02M	6.50%

Q3 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First Vistra position — start of multi-Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.40M	4.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital First Vistra — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.80M	5.20%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for VST — context for the moves above.

Current ownership

2 tracked superinvestors currently hold VST as a top position.

Manager	% Portfolio
Howard Marks Independent power producer, AI data center demand.	11.2%
Seth Klarman Independent power producer + AI/data center thesis.	9.6%

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HoldLens Signal combines multi-factor recommendation scoring with live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.