Signal dossier · Q1 2026

VST

Vistra Corp · Utilities

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

6Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

3 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+21

Dissent penalty

−20

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

+12

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

+12

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-7

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−20

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 2·Buyers: 25·Sellers: 25·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +8.4% ±3.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +1 for VST

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+12	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-7	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+6	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+20	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+1	−100 to +100	(raw sum 41 clamped to score 1)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For VST specifically: 25 buyers vs 25 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling VST each quarter — last 2 years.

12 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on VST for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on VST — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

25 buys · 25 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Mixed

Q4 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Aggressive Vistra add — AI data center demand thesis.	Add 25.00%	+1.20M	11.40%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Adding to Vistra — power demand from AI.	Add 18.00%	+940K	12.80%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 11.00%	+513K	6.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 7.00%	+70K	2.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 24.00%	-300K	2.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-234K	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 28.00%	-52K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Sell (exit)	-3K	0.00%

Q3 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group AI data center thesis — big add.	Add 30.00%	+1.38M	9.60%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same data center thesis as Klarman.	Add 25.00%	+1.30M	11.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+234K	1.10%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 31.00%	-555K	3.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 27.00%	-1.77M	6.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 16.00%	-35K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 25.00%	-315K	2.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 54.00%	-3K	0.00%

Q2 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First of three consecutive quarters building Vistra.	Add 22.00%	+1.00M	7.20%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — 3 Q build.	Add 18.00%	+850K	9.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 40.00%	+1.86M	8.90%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 47.00%	+400K	3.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+6K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 22.00%	-500K	5.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 14.00%	-36K	0.00%

Q1 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Klarman's first Vistra position — start of the 3 Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.20M	5.90%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Howard Marks's first Vistra position — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.60M	7.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 17.00%	+38K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 15.00%	-400K	3.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-283K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 14.00%	-748K	4.70%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-602K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 15.00%	-150K	1.50%

Q4 2024(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Major Vistra add — start of the multi-quarter build.	Add 28.00%	+1.24M	5.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — start of build.	Add 22.00%	+1.02M	6.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 113%	+1.43M	5.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 28.00%	-108K	1.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 21.00%	-1.45M	5.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 67.00%	-1.24M	0.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 61.00%	-344K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 69.00%	-2.17M	1.90%

Q3 2024(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First Vistra position — start of multi-Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.40M	4.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital First Vistra — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.80M	5.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Buy (new)	+1.27M	2.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.84M	0.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 85.00%	-2.23M	1.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 10.00%	-61K	0.10%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 29.00%	-1.29M	5.10%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for VST — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on VST

Utilities sector →→ Ranks #58 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in VST as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Howard MarksT1

11.2%

“Independent power producer, AI data center demand.”

Seth KlarmanT1

9.6%

“Independent power producer + AI/data center thesis.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for VST, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 2 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the +1 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.