Signal dossier · Q1 2026

BABA

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

See the backtest →

ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

+25

6Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

1 tracked manager buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+25

Buy component

+42

Dissent penalty

−17

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

+14

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 3

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+25

Smart money (13F)

+14

Insider activity (Form 4)

+10

Track record (CAGR)

-2

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−17

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 4·Buyers: 20·Sellers: 17·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.6% ±2.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +25 for BABA

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+14	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	+10	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-2	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+10	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+17	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+25	−100 to +100	(raw sum 59 clamped to score 25)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For BABA specifically: 20 buyers vs 17 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

Share this signal

8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling BABA each quarter — last 2 years.

10 buy moves·2 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on BABA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on BABA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

20 buys · 17 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Adding to China contrarian bet.	Add 30.00%	+520K	5.40%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+825K	1.70%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 99.00%	+369K	0.10%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Doubling down again on the Alibaba contrarian bet.	Add 30.00%	+60K	28.40%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 345%	+7K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Sell (exit)	-3K	0.00%

Q3 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management New Alibaba position — China contrarian.	Buy (new)	+1.70M	4.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+3K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Buy (new)	+372K	0.00%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Doubled the Alibaba bet.	Add 40.00%	+55K	21.30%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-5.40M	0.00%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital Took some Alibaba profits.	Reduce 12.00%	-680K	9.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 7.00%	-96K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 14.00%	-360	0.00%

Q2 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Buy (new)	+5.40M	0.10%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management First major BABA add — 3 Q consecutive.	Add 35.00%	+45K	15.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 23.00%	-2.16M	12.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 75.00%	-4.12M	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 98.00%	-107K	0.00%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 28.00%	+1.19M	0.20%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Burry re-entered BABA here.	Buy (new)	+100K	11.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 22.00%	-2.61M	14.60%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 42.00%	-79K	0.00%

Q4 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management First BABA position.	Buy (new)	+1.50M	3.40%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management BABA contrarian build accelerating.	Add 30.00%	+42K	11.50%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+189K	0.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-225K	0.00%

Q3 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Add 83.00%	+102K	0.40%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Burry's BABA re-entry.	Buy (new)	+100K	8.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 32.00%	-2.06M	0.20%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Sell (exit)	-293K	0.00%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Briefly exited BABA before re-entering Q3.	Sell (exit)	-200K	—

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management First BABA contrarian position.	Buy (new)	+195K	6.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Joe Tsai Chairman Major open-market buy. Strong insider signal.	buy	500,000	$43.50M	Dec 5, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for BABA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on BABA

Technology sector →→ Ranks #4 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in BABA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Michael Burry

21.3%

“China big tech contrarian bet.”

Mohnish Pabrai

18.4%

“China discount opportunity.”

Li Lu

9.7%

“China expertise advantage.”

David TepperT1

5.4%

“China tech contrarian bet.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for BABA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 4 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 4 institutional holdings and the +25 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Technology

Top conviction in this sector

All Technology names →

Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of BABA's holders

Full overlap matrix →

Remove with Pro →

Share the BABA signal

Post LinkedIn Reddit Facebook

The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.