Conviction leaders · weighted by position size

Whose entire portfolio does smart money agree with?

30 managers ranked by the position-weighted average ConvictionScore of their top holdings. A high score means the unified −100..+100 smart-money model agrees with every one of their biggest bets, right now.

Forward-looking, not historical. Position-weighted so a +60 score on a 25% position counts more than +60 on a 2% position. “(Own)” holdings excluded.

Rank #1

Scion Asset Management

Full ranking · top 20

Position-weighted conviction

Each manager’s top holdings (excluding their own company) scored on the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScale, then weighted by position size and averaged.

#	Manager	Picks	Avg	Weighted avg	Best pick
1	Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital	6	+18.7	+18.6	FICO +28
2	Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	5	+12	+17	BABA +39
3	Howard Marks Oaktree Capital	6	+12.7	+15.4	VST +22
4	Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office	5	+13.4	+14.2	COHR +26
5	Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds	5	+11.2	+14.2	BABA +39
6	Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management	7	+9.4	+11.6	GE +41
7	Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	5	+11.6	+11.3	OXY +33
8	Chuck Akre Akre Capital Management	6	+9	+11.1	MA +17
9	Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors	6	+11.2	+10.9	NVDA +19
10	David Tepper Appaloosa Management	7	+12.1	+10.9	BABA +39
11	Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	6	+8.2	+10.8	SCHW +29
12	Li Lu Himalaya Capital	5	+12	+10.4	BABA +39
13	David Einhorn Greenlight Capital	6	+3.7	+10.1	GRBK +22
14	Tom Slater Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	6	+7.7	+8.5	NVDA +19
15	John Armitage Egerton Capital	6	+9.3	+8.2	SCHW +29
16	Stephen Mandel Lone Pine Capital	5	+8	+7.9	NVDA +19
17	Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises	5	+9	+7.8	OXY +33
18	Bill Ackman Pershing Square Capital	8	+6.9	+7.4	BN +23
19	Terry Smith Fundsmith	6	+5.5	+6.5	MA +17
20	Seth Klarman Baupost Group	6	+5.8	+6.2	VST +22

HoldLens Pro · Founders pricing

Email alerts + conviction scores + alpha attribution

$14/mo · cancel anytime · lock in for life

See pricing →

How this is computed

Position-weighted average

weightedAvg = Σ(score × pct) / Σ(pct)

For each manager, every top-10 holding (excluding “(own)” companies like Icahn’s IEP) gets the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore. We then average those scores weighted by the size of each position in the portfolio. A 25%-of-portfolio +60 conviction beats a 2% +60 conviction.

This is a forward-looking signal, distinct from /leaderboard (historical 10y alpha) and /manager-rankings (skill × activity composite). Average across all 30 leaders: +8.4.

ConvictionScore methodology: methodology. Not investment advice. Updates with each new 13F filing cycle.