Conviction leaders · weighted by position size

Whose entire portfolio does smart money agree with?

30 managers ranked by the position-weighted average ConvictionScore of their top holdings. A high score means the unified −100..+100 smart-money model agrees with every one of their biggest bets, right now.

Forward-looking, not historical. Position-weighted so a +60 score on a 25% position counts more than +60 on a 2% position. “(Own)” holdings excluded.

Rank #1

Pabrai Investment Funds

Scion Asset Management

Full ranking · top 20

Position-weighted conviction

Each manager’s top holdings (excluding their own company) scored on the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScale, then weighted by position size and averaged.

#	Manager	Picks	Avg	Weighted avg	Best pick
1	Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital	6	+10.3	+12.2	FICO +31
2	Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds	5	+9	+12.1	BABA +25
3	Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	5	+4.4	+8.1	BABA +25
4	Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	6	+4.2	+7.3	SCHW +25
5	Howard Marks Oaktree Capital	6	+4	+5.8	TRMD +14
6	David Einhorn Greenlight Capital	6	+0.8	+5	GRBK +13
7	Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office	5	+4	+4.3	COHR +23
8	Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	5	+5.4	+4	OXY +22
9	Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises	5	+2	+2.7	OXY +22
10	Li Lu Himalaya Capital	5	+4.6	+2.5	BABA +25
11	Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management	7	+0.3	+2.1	GE +40
12	Jeffrey Ubben ValueAct Capital	5	+0.4	+0.6	META +3
13	David Tepper Appaloosa Management	7	+1.4	+0.2	BABA +25
14	John Armitage Egerton Capital	6	+0.2	−1.6	SCHW +25
15	William von Mueffling Cantillon Capital Management	6	−1.5	−1.7	MCO +16
16	Chuck Akre Akre Capital Management	6	−2.2	−1.9	MCO +16
17	Tom Slater Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	6	−2.5	−2.1	NVDA +8
18	Stephen Mandel Lone Pine Capital	5	−1.8	−2.4	NVDA +8
19	Terry Smith Fundsmith	6	−3.2	−2.8	NOVO +6
20	Seth Klarman Baupost Group	6	−3.2	−3.8	VST +1

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How this is computed

Position-weighted average

weightedAvg = Σ(score × pct) / Σ(pct)

For each manager, every top-10 holding (excluding “(own)” companies like Icahn’s IEP) gets the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore. We then average those scores weighted by the size of each position in the portfolio. A 25%-of-portfolio +60 conviction beats a 2% +60 conviction.

This is a forward-looking signal, distinct from /leaderboard (historical 10y alpha) and /manager-rankings (skill × activity composite). Average across all 30 leaders: −0.5.

ConvictionScore methodology: methodology. Not investment advice. Updates with each new 13F filing cycle.