Whose entire portfolio does smart money agree with?
30 managers ranked by the position-weighted average ConvictionScore of their top holdings. A high score means the unified −100..+100 smart-money model agrees with every one of their biggest bets, right now.
Forward-looking, not historical. Position-weighted so a +60 score on a 25% position counts more than +60 on a 2% position. “(Own)” holdings excluded.
Position-weighted conviction
Each manager’s top holdings (excluding their own company) scored on the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScale, then weighted by position size and averaged.
| # | Manager | Weighted avg |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds | +12.6 |
| 2 | Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital | +11.3 |
| 3 | Michael Burry Scion Asset Management | +7.9 |
| 4 | Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors | +6.8 |
| 5 | Howard Marks Oaktree Capital | +6 |
| 6 | David Einhorn Greenlight Capital | +5.5 |
| 7 | Li Lu Himalaya Capital | +3.7 |
| 8 | Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial | +3.6 |
| 9 | Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office | +3.4 |
| 10 | Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises | +2.5 |
| 11 | Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management | +1.2 |
| 12 | David Tepper Appaloosa Management | −0.1 |
| 13 | Jeffrey Ubben ValueAct Capital | −0.2 |
| 14 | Tom Slater Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) | −2.5 |
| 15 | Chuck Akre Akre Capital Management | −2.7 |
| 16 | John Armitage Egerton Capital | −2.7 |
| 17 | Stephen Mandel Lone Pine Capital | −2.9 |
| 18 | William von Mueffling Cantillon Capital Management | −3 |
| 19 | David Rolfe Wedgewood Partners | −3.3 |
| 20 | Terry Smith Fundsmith | −3.6 |
Position-weighted average
For each manager, every top-10 holding (excluding “(own)” companies like Icahn’s IEP) gets the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore. We then average those scores weighted by the size of each position in the portfolio. A 25%-of-portfolio +60 conviction beats a 2% +60 conviction.
This is a forward-looking signal, distinct from /leaderboard (historical 10y alpha) and /manager-rankings (skill × activity composite). Average across all 30 leaders: −0.9.
ConvictionScore methodology: methodology. Not investment advice. Updates with each new 13F filing cycle.