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Reversals · when smart money changes its mind

Who changed their mind?

Across HoldLens’s 8-quarter archive, 81 reversals are comebacks — the manager exited the name and then opened a fresh position later. 266 are whipsaws — the thesis broke within a few quarters of the entry.

Dataroma doesn’t mark either. HoldLens keeps the action history, so a manager walking BACK an exit is visible as what it is: the second-hardest decision in professional investing, after the first entry. Comebacks are rare and loud.

81
Comebacks (exit → new)
266
Whipsaws (new → exit)
347
Total reversals
Comebacks · second bite

They sold it. Then they bought it back.

The rarest pattern. An experienced manager returning to a name they already walked away from is admitting the first exit was wrong — or spotting a setup that matured. Either way, it’s a conviction signal.

#1
Stephen Mandel· Lone Pine Capitalq9
6Q gap·−10
BKNG logoBKNG
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 2.5% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#2
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
6Q gap·+26
BABA logoBABA
ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.1% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#3
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
6Q gap·−7
NIO logoNIO
NIO INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#4
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
6Q gap·−20
AAPL logoAAPL
APPLE INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 2.6% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#5
Glenn Greenberg· Brave Warrior Advisorsq7
6Q gap·−10
TXN logoTXN
TEXAS INSTRS INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#6
Glenn Greenberg· Brave Warrior Advisorsq7
6Q gap·−8
APO logoAPO
APOLLO GLOBAL MGMT INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#7
Stephen Mandel· Lone Pine Capitalq9
5Q gap·−1
SPOT logoSPOT
SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.1% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#8
Seth Klarman· Baupost Groupq9
5Q gap·−7
FNF logoFNF
FIDELITY NATL INFORMATION SV
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2025· 7.5% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 5.7% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#9
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
5Q gap·−4
YPF logoYPF
YPF SA
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.2% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.7% book
#10
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
5Q gap·−8
CRM logoCRM
SALESFORCE INC
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.5% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.1% book
#11
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
5Q gap·−27
GOOGL logoGOOGL
ALPHABET INC
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 2.2% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#12
Polen Capital· Polen Capital Managementq8
5Q gap·−2
COPA logoCOPA
COPA HOLDINGS SA
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#13
Polen Capital· Polen Capital Managementq8
5Q gap·−5
EQIX logoEQIX
ETSY INC
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#14
Tom Slater· Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)q8
5Q gap·−23
AMD logoAMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#15
Tom Slater· Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)q8
5Q gap·+1
INTC logoINTC
Intel Corporation
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#16
Michael Burry· Scion Asset Managementq7
5Q gap·0
BRKR logoBRKR
BRUKER CORP
exit· Q1 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2024· 5.7% bookexit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 1.8% book
#17
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
4Q gap·+3
ARM logoARM
Arm Holdings Plc
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 3.2% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.5% book
#18
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
4Q gap·−4
PBR logoPBR
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA
exit· Q2 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 2.0% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#19
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
4Q gap·−17
LYV logoLYV
LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.1% book
#20
David Rolfe· Wedgewood Partnersq9
4Q gap·−19
IVV logoIVV
ISHARES TR
exit· Q2 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 1.1% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#21
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
4Q gap·−5
SASOL logoSASOL
SASOL LTD
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#22
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
4Q gap·+1
PGR logoPGR
PROGRESSIVE CORP
exit· Q2 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.8% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#23
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
4Q gap·−6
CSGP logoCSGP
COSTAR GROUP INC
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.7% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#24
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
4Q gap·−15
CBRE logoCBRE
CBRE GROUP INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.5% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#25
Bill Nygren· Oakmark Fundsq7
4Q gap·−24
UNH logoUNH
UNH
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#26
Bill Nygren· Oakmark Fundsq7
4Q gap·−8
IT logoIT
IT
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.3% book
#27
Stephen Mandel· Lone Pine Capitalq9
3Q gap·−24
UNH logoUNH
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 3.8% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% book
#28
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
3Q gap·+11
BN logoBN
Broadcom Inc
exit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 1.8% bookexit· Q2 2026· 0.0% book
#29
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
3Q gap·−7
C logoC
Citigroup Inc
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 1.4% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#30
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
3Q gap·−2
GEV logoGEV
Ge Vernova Inc
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 1.2% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
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Whipsaws · thesis broke

They bought it. Then they walked.

Every professional investor gets these occasionally. The thesis didn’t pan out and the discipline to cut the position is the job. Worth reading as a reminder that even the best superinvestors change their minds.

#ManagerTickerEnteredExitedHeld
1Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
DPZQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
2Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
POOLQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
3Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
STZQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
4Stephen Mandel
q9 · Lone Pine Capital
COFQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
5Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
COHRQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
6Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
MSFTQ1 2024Q3 20256Q
7Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
GOOGLQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
8Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
DALQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
9Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
TSLAQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
10Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
LLYQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
11Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
MUQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
12Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
APTIVQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
13Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
QCOMQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
14Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
LULUQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
15Chase Coleman
q8 · Tiger Global Management
ZSQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
16Chase Coleman
q8 · Tiger Global Management
CSGPQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
17Glenn Greenberg
q7 · Brave Warrior Advisors
ICONQ4 2024Q2 20266Q
18Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
CCCSQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
19Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
UBERQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
20Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
EXEQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
21David Tepper
q9 · Appaloosa Management
AAPLQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
22David Tepper
q9 · Appaloosa Management
BNQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
23François Rochon
q9 · Giverny Capital
IONQQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
24Terry Smith
q9 · Fundsmith
GRACOQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
25Dev Kantesaria
q9 · Valley Forge Capital
MSCIQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
26Dev Kantesaria
q9 · Valley Forge Capital
EFXQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
27Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
BANK7Q1 2025Q2 20265Q
28Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
NICEQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
29Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
UNHQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
30Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
METAQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
31Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
SPGQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
32Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
NVDAQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
33Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
TMOQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
34Chase Coleman
q8 · Tiger Global Management
APPQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
35William von Mueffling
q8 · Cantillon Capital Management
ALCONQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
36Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
MOHQ2 2024Q3 20255Q
37Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
BAIDUQ1 2024Q2 20255Q
38Bill Nygren
q7 · Oakmark Funds
INTCQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
39Bill Nygren
q7 · Oakmark Funds
FLUTQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
40Bill Nygren
q7 · Oakmark Funds
XOMQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
41Glenn Greenberg
q7 · Brave Warrior Advisors
VQ1 2025Q2 20265Q
42Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
DHIQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
43Stephen Mandel
q9 · Lone Pine Capital
FLUTQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
44Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
DHIQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
45Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
ENTGQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
46Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
DHRQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
47Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
TMOQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
48Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
QSRQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
49Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
NUQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
50Seth Klarman
q9 · Baupost Group
FERGQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
51Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
GRABQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
52Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
LYFTQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
53David Rolfe
q9 · Wedgewood Partners
ZTSQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
54Terry Smith
q9 · Fundsmith
INTUQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
55Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
KTQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
56Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
LOARQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
57Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
FNDQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
58Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
P10Q1 2025Q1 20264Q
59Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
GSHDQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
60Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
NCINOQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
61Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
UBSQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
62Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
ICEQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
63Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
APPQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
64Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
CSGPQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
65Chase Coleman
q8 · Tiger Global Management
ETOROQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
66Polen Capital
q8 · Polen Capital Management
OSCRQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
67Polen Capital
q8 · Polen Capital Management
DAVEQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
68Polen Capital
q8 · Polen Capital Management
HCIQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
69Polen Capital
q8 · Polen Capital Management
SHAKQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
70Tom Slater
q8 · Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
CABOQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
71Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
BABAQ1 2024Q1 20254Q
72Bill Nygren
q7 · Oakmark Funds
AMDQ2 2025Q2 20264Q
73Mohnish Pabrai
q6 · Pabrai Investment Funds
VALQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
74Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
UNHQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
75Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
LAMRQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
How reversals are detected

new/exit action sequence, same manager × ticker

  • 1. Action filter. Only new and exit actions. Adds and trims don’t count — a true reversal is going to zero and back.
  • 2. Comeback. The first event is an exit and a later event is a new. The manager sold it completely, then later opened a fresh position in the same name. Rarest pattern in the archive.
  • 3. Whipsaw. The first event is a new and a later event is an exit. The manager opened the position and then walked within the 8-quarter window.
  • 4. Gap quarters. Distance between the first and last event in the sequence. Larger gap = more distance between the two decisions.

The archive only covers 8 quarters — reversals that span longer windows are not visible yet. As more quarters land, the comeback count will grow.

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Not investment advice. Reversal detection is limited by archive coverage. Methodology.