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Reversals · when smart money changes its mind

Who changed their mind?

Across HoldLens’s 8-quarter archive, 81 reversals are comebacks — the manager exited the name and then opened a fresh position later. 275 are whipsaws — the thesis broke within a few quarters of the entry.

Dataroma doesn’t mark either. HoldLens keeps the action history, so a manager walking BACK an exit is visible as what it is: the second-hardest decision in professional investing, after the first entry. Comebacks are rare and loud.

81
Comebacks (exit → new)
275
Whipsaws (new → exit)
356
Total reversals
Comebacks · second bite

They sold it. Then they bought it back.

The rarest pattern. An experienced manager returning to a name they already walked away from is admitting the first exit was wrong — or spotting a setup that matured. Either way, it’s a conviction signal.

#1
Stephen Mandel· Lone Pine Capitalq9
6Q gap·−3
MCK logoMCK
MCKESSON CORP
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 2.7% book
#2
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
6Q gap·−1
NRG logoNRG
NRG ENERGY INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.1% book
#3
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
6Q gap·−5
BAKKT logoBAKKT
BAKKT HOLDINGS INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#4
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
6Q gap·−11
FND logoFND
FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#5
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
6Q gap·−12
ICON logoICON
ICON PLC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#6
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
6Q gap·−8
UBS logoUBS
UBS GROUP AG
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.3% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#7
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
6Q gap·−25
UNH logoUNH
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2024· 3.1% bookexit· Q2 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 1.0% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#8
Lee Ainslie· Maverick Capitalq8
6Q gap·−26
GOOGL logoGOOGL
ALPHABET INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 2.4% book
#9
Lee Ainslie· Maverick Capitalq8
6Q gap·+11
ASML logoASML
ASML HOLDING N V
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.8% book
#10
Polen Capital· Polen Capital Managementq8
6Q gap·+3
META logoMETA
META PLATFORMS INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 1.9% book
#11
Warren Buffett· Berkshire Hathawayq10
5Q gap·−11
FND logoFND
FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.8% book
#12
Stephen Mandel· Lone Pine Capitalq9
5Q gap·0
MA logoMA
MASTERCARD INCORPORATED
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.4% book
#13
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
5Q gap·−5
EQT logoEQT
Eqt Corp
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2025· 1.5% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#14
Seth Klarman· Baupost Groupq9
5Q gap·−7
FNF logoFNF
FIDELITY NATL INFORMATION SV
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2025· 7.5% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 5.7% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#15
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
5Q gap·−4
YPF logoYPF
YPF SA
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.2% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.7% book
#16
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
5Q gap·−5
MBIA logoMBIA
MBIA INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q2 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#17
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
5Q gap·−20
AAPL logoAAPL
APPLE INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 2.6% book
#18
Polen Capital· Polen Capital Managementq8
5Q gap·−5
DOCS logoDOCS
DOXIMITY INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#19
Tom Slater· Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)q8
5Q gap·+2
INTC logoINTC
Intel Corporation
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#20
Michael Burry· Scion Asset Managementq7
5Q gap·0
BRKR logoBRKR
BRUKER CORP
exit· Q1 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2024· 5.7% bookexit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 1.8% book
#21
Glenn Greenberg· Brave Warrior Advisorsq7
5Q gap·−8
APO logoAPO
APOLLO GLOBAL MGMT INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#22
Glenn Greenberg· Brave Warrior Advisorsq7
5Q gap·−4
AMAT logoAMAT
APPLIED MATLS INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#23
Stanley Druckenmiller· Duquesne Family Officeq9
4Q gap·+2
BLDR logoBLDR
Builders Firstsource Inc
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.2% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% book
#24
Howard Marks· Oaktree Capitalq9
4Q gap·−17
LYV logoLYV
LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.1% book
#25
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
4Q gap·−6
GEVO logoGEVO
GEVO INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.0% book
#26
Joel Greenblatt· Gotham Asset Managementq8
4Q gap·−7
ZYNEX logoZYNEX
ZYNEX INC
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q2 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q3 2025· 0.0% book
#27
Andreas Halvorsen· Viking Global Investorsq8
4Q gap·−14
CBRE logoCBRE
CBRE GROUP INC
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.5% bookexit· Q4 2025· 0.0% book
#28
Tom Slater· Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)q8
4Q gap·−4
ADBE logoADBE
Adobe Systems
exit· Q3 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.0% book
#29
Bill Nygren· Oakmark Fundsq7
4Q gap·−25
UNH logoUNH
UNH
exit· Q1 2025· 0.0% booknew· Q3 2025· 0.0% bookexit· Q1 2026· 0.0% book
#30
Bill Nygren· Oakmark Fundsq7
4Q gap·−8
IT logoIT
IT
exit· Q4 2024· 0.0% booknew· Q4 2025· 0.3% book
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Whipsaws · thesis broke

They bought it. Then they walked.

Every professional investor gets these occasionally. The thesis didn’t pan out and the discipline to cut the position is the job. Worth reading as a reminder that even the best superinvestors change their minds.

#ManagerTickerEnteredExitedHeld
1Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
DPZQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
2Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
POOLQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
3Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
ARMQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
4Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
MSFTQ1 2024Q3 20256Q
5Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
BNQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
6Seth Klarman
q9 · Baupost Group
DGQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
7Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
PDDQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
8Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
ABNBQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
9Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
PPLQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
10François Rochon
q9 · Giverny Capital
COFQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
11Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
GOPROQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
12Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
BACQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
13Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
BSXQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
14Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
CSGPQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
15Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
LPLAQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
16Chase Coleman
q8 · Tiger Global Management
FLUTQ3 2024Q1 20266Q
17Stephen Mandel
q9 · Lone Pine Capital
SBUXQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
18Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
MUQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
19Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
GOOGLQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
20Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
DALQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
21Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
CQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
22Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
SPGIQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
23Seth Klarman
q9 · Baupost Group
QSRQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
24Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
UBERQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
25Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
EXEQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
26Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
WQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
27Dev Kantesaria
q9 · Valley Forge Capital
MSCIQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
28Dev Kantesaria
q9 · Valley Forge Capital
EFXQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
29François Rochon
q9 · Giverny Capital
IONQQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
30Terry Smith
q9 · Fundsmith
GRACOQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
31Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
ARQQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
32Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
SASOLQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
33Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
LULUQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
34Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
GOOGLQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
35Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
TEVAQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
36Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
TMOQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
37Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
FLUTQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
38Tom Slater
q8 · Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
BLDRQ3 2024Q4 20255Q
39Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
MOHQ2 2024Q3 20255Q
40Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
BAIDUQ1 2024Q2 20255Q
41Glenn Greenberg
q7 · Brave Warrior Advisors
ICONQ4 2024Q1 20265Q
42Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
SIRIQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
43Stephen Mandel
q9 · Lone Pine Capital
FLUTQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
44Stephen Mandel
q9 · Lone Pine Capital
CRMQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
45Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
NUQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
46Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
CRHQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
47Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
XPOQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
48Seth Klarman
q9 · Baupost Group
FERGQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
49Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
GRABQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
50Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
LYFTQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
51Howard Marks
q9 · Oaktree Capital
XPQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
52David Rolfe
q9 · Wedgewood Partners
IVVQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
53Terry Smith
q9 · Fundsmith
INTUQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
54Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
BANK7Q1 2025Q1 20264Q
55Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
P10Q1 2025Q1 20264Q
56Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
GSHDQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
57Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
NCINOQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
58Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
MARAQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
59Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
RHQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
60Joel Greenblatt
q8 · Gotham Asset Management
BRFQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
61Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
ICEQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
62Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
APPQ4 2024Q4 20254Q
63Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
AONQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
64Andreas Halvorsen
q8 · Viking Global Investors
FLUTQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
65Lee Ainslie
q8 · Maverick Capital
CSGPQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
66Michael Burry
q7 · Scion Asset Management
BABAQ1 2024Q1 20254Q
67Glenn Greenberg
q7 · Brave Warrior Advisors
VQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
68Glenn Greenberg
q7 · Brave Warrior Advisors
TXNQ3 2024Q3 20254Q
69Mohnish Pabrai
q6 · Pabrai Investment Funds
VALQ1 2025Q1 20264Q
70Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
UNHQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
71Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
LAMRQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
72Warren Buffett
q10 · Berkshire Hathaway
ALLEQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
73Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
ENTGQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
74Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
GSQ2 2025Q1 20263Q
75Stanley Druckenmiller
q9 · Duquesne Family Office
COFQ1 2025Q4 20253Q
How reversals are detected

new/exit action sequence, same manager × ticker

  • 1. Action filter. Only new and exit actions. Adds and trims don’t count — a true reversal is going to zero and back.
  • 2. Comeback. The first event is an exit and a later event is a new. The manager sold it completely, then later opened a fresh position in the same name. Rarest pattern in the archive.
  • 3. Whipsaw. The first event is a new and a later event is an exit. The manager opened the position and then walked within the 8-quarter window.
  • 4. Gap quarters. Distance between the first and last event in the sequence. Larger gap = more distance between the two decisions.

The archive only covers 8 quarters — reversals that span longer windows are not visible yet. As more quarters land, the comeback count will grow.

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Not investment advice. Reversal detection is limited by archive coverage. Methodology.