Highest expected ROI · Q4 2025
What to buy and sell right now.
Multi-factor ConvictionScore v3 with expected annual return projection. Ranked by composite score across 6 signal layers — not just consensus.
Each row shows the model's expected annualized return based on the buyers' realized 10-year CAGRs weighted by their position size. Read the methodology →
Buy — top 10
All buy signals →1
GE
GE Aerospace
Other6Q BUY·6 buying · 1 total owners
+42
BUY
Expected return
+18.6%/yr
Confidence ±
0%
5-year projection
2.4×
Buyer alpha avg
18.6%
Hohn19% CAGRHohn19% CAGRHohn19% CAGR
2
BABA
Alibaba
Technology6Q BUY·10 buying · 2 selling · 4 total owners
+40
BUY
Expected return
+11.8%/yr
Confidence ±
2.3%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
14.5%
Tepper16% CAGRTepper16% CAGRBurry11% CAGR
3
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
Energy7Q BUY·9 buying · 3 selling · 3 total owners
+32
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14.8%/yr
Confidence ±
2.6%
5-year projection
2.0×
Buyer alpha avg
15.9%
Watsa18% CAGRBuffett12% CAGRWatsa18% CAGR
4
SCHW
Charles Schwab
Financials4Q BUY·5 buying · 2 total owners
+32
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+12.7%/yr
Confidence ±
0%
5-year projection
1.8×
Buyer alpha avg
12.7%
Armitage13% CAGRGreenberg13% CAGRGreenberg13% CAGR
5
MSCI
MSCI Inc
Other·1 buying · 1 total owners
+30
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+18.7%/yr
Confidence ±
0%
5-year projection
2.4×
Buyer alpha avg
18.7%
Kantesaria19% CAGR
6
MA
Mastercard
Other5Q BUY·8 buying · 6 total owners
+29
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14%/yr
Confidence ±
0.5%
5-year projection
1.9×
Buyer alpha avg
13.9%
Akre14% CAGRAkre14% CAGRRochon13% CAGR
7
FICO
Fair Isaac
Other·2 buying · 2 total owners
+28
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+17.2%/yr
Confidence ±
3.1%
5-year projection
2.2×
Buyer alpha avg
15.6%
Kantesaria19% CAGRRolfe13% CAGR
8
HEI
HEICO Corp
Other·1 buying · 1 total owners
+26
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+18.7%/yr
Confidence ±
0%
5-year projection
2.4×
Buyer alpha avg
18.7%
Kantesaria19% CAGR
9
COHR
Coherent
Technology4Q BUY·4 buying · 1 total owners
+26
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+17%/yr
Confidence ±
0%
5-year projection
2.2×
Buyer alpha avg
17.0%
Druckenmiller17% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGR
10
TSM
Taiwan Semi
Technology4Q BUY·6 buying · 2 total owners
+24
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14.8%/yr
Confidence ±
2.1%
5-year projection
2.0×
Buyer alpha avg
14.0%
Rolfe13% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGRRolfe13% CAGR
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Sell — top 10
All sell signals →1
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Technology6Q SELL·0 buying · 7 selling · 3 total owners
-11
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.7%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
2
TSLA
Tesla
Other·0 buying · 1 selling · 1 total owners
-9
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-6%/yr
5-year projection
0.7×
Buyer alpha avg
—
3
SIRI
SIRI
·0 buying · 1 selling
-4
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.7%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
4
FIS
Fidelity National Info
Technology2Q SELL·0 buying · 2 selling · 1 total owners
-3
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-5.1%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
5
SHEL
Shell
Energy·0 buying · 1 selling · 1 total owners
-2
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.5%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
6
STLA
Stellantis
Consumer Discretionary·0 buying · 1 selling · 1 total owners
-2
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-5.8%/yr
5-year projection
0.7×
Buyer alpha avg
—
7
BIDU
Baidu
Technology·0 buying · 1 selling · 1 total owners
-1
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.5%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
8
INTC
INTC
·0 buying · 1 selling
-1
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-3.6%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
9
CVX
Chevron
Energy·0 buying · 1 selling · 1 total owners
-1
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.7%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
10
HPQ
HPQ
·0 buying · 1 selling
-1
WEAK SELL
Expected return
-4.7%/yr
5-year projection
0.8×
Buyer alpha avg
—
The model
Six signal layers, one number
ConvictionScore v3 combines smart-money consensus, insider activity, manager track-record-weighted expected return, multi-quarter trend streaks, position concentration, anti-crowding bonus (under-the-radar discovery), and dissent penalty. Time-decayed across 4 quarters of 13F data. Expected ROI projects forward using the buyers' realized 10-year CAGRs.
- • Smart money — manager quality × consensus, time-decayed
- • Insider boost — CEO/CFO open-market buys (the strongest single equity signal)
- • Track record — buyer 10y CAGR × position size
- • Trend streak — multi-quarter compounding
- • Concentration — 15% positions weighted heavier than 1%
- • Contrarian bonus — under-the-radar gems (anti-crowding)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Expected ROI is the model's projection, not a guarantee. Not investment advice. Methodology.