Signal dossier · Q1 2026

MSFT

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−8

5Q ACCUM

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

9 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−8

Buy component

+42

Dissent penalty

−45

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

+23

Buyers / Sellers

4 / 9

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−8

Smart money (13F)

+23

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−45

− Crowding penalty

−5

Owners: 12·Buyers: 43·Sellers: 38·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.2% ±3.6%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −8 for MSFT

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+23	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	0	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+9	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+45	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	+5	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−8	−100 to +100	(raw sum 92 clamped to score -8)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For MSFT specifically: 43 buyers vs 38 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MSFT each quarter — last 2 years.

19 buy moves·2 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth rising

+2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

More superinvestors are holding this name than 8 quarters ago. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on MSFT for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MSFT — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

43 buys · 38 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Quality compounder top-up.	Add 5.00%	+450K	11.20%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital Quality compounder add.	Add 12.00%	+140K	8.90%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 8.00%	+38K	3.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Tiger-style quality compounder add.	Add 22.00%	+340K	4.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Partial Microsoft trim.	Reduce 10.00%	-110K	8.20%
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management Small Microsoft trim.	Reduce 6.00%	-48K	7.80%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Reduce 16.00%	-1.07M	8.90%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 16.00%	-175K	6.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-1.11M	8.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 13.00%	-994	0.00%

Q3 2025(14 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Fundsmith MSFT add.	Add 8.00%	+600K	11.00%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital Steady Microsoft build.	Add 8.00%	+85K	8.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital Maverick MSFT add.	Add 40.00%	+250K	3.80%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding Microsoft.	Add 30.00%	+700K	9.80%
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management Microsoft add before Q4 trim.	Add 8.00%	+62K	8.30%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+2.43M	3.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 37.00%	+1.67M	2.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 16.00%	+1K	0.00%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Reduce 6.00%	-973K	18.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 7.00%	-38K	3.20%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 26.00%	-600	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-201K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 35.00%	-646K	4.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-406K	8.40%

Q2 2025(9 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 16.00%	+316	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+201K	2.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Building Microsoft.	Add 15.00%	+220K	3.80%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 27.00%	+85K	2.60%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 78.00%	+3K	0.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 8.00%	-429K	10.70%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-515K	8.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 14.00%	-993K	2.20%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Reduce 59.00%	-750	0.00%

Q1 2025(11 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 24.00%	+3.31M	17.00%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners	Add 18.00%	+12K	7.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 20.00%	+321K	6.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 17.00%	+897K	8.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 8.00%	+325K	1.70%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 47.00%	-460K	2.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 16.00%	-367	0.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 13.00%	-817K	9.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 71.00%	-1.71M	0.80%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 47.00%	-285K	1.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-470K	7.00%

Q4 2024(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Adding Microsoft.	Add 14.00%	+160K	9.50%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft top-up.	Add 7.00%	+580K	11.00%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 17.00%	+2.00M	15.80%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Buy (new)	+2K	0.00%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding Microsoft.	Add 35.00%	+820K	8.60%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Microsoft add.	Add 18.00%	+260K	4.20%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 18.00%	+578	0.00%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Add 143%	+750	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 31.00%	-270K	3.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-602K	7.30%

Q3 2024(11 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Microsoft add.	Add 18.00%	+175K	8.30%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft top-up.	Add 6.00%	+500K	10.50%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 14.00%	+1.46M	13.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Microsoft add.	Add 25.00%	+580K	6.80%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 46.00%	+2.22M	2.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 50.00%	+1K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 18.00%	-211K	6.20%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 18.00%	-364K	5.30%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 11.00%	-248K	3.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 45.00%	-710K	5.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-1.97M	7.80%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Microsoft add.	Add 15.00%	+130K	7.00%

Q1 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First Microsoft position.	Buy (new)	+720K	6.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft add.	Add 5.00%	+410K	10.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Satya Nadella CEO & Chairman 10b5-1 quarterly plan.	sell	78,000	$33.15M	Nov 5, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for MSFT — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on MSFT

Technology sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MSFT as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Chris HohnT1

13.1%

“Core AI infrastructure holding.”

Terry SmithT1

11.2%

“Top position. Held since 2011.”

Chase Coleman

10.7%

“AI infrastructure leader.”

Polen Capital

9.4%

“Core compounder. Decade-long hold.”

Stanley DruckenmillerT1

9.1%

“Other half of the AI infrastructure trade.”

John ArmitageT1

8.9%

“Core quality compounder.”

Stephen MandelT1

7.8%

“Quality compounder since 2014.”

William von Mueffling

7.8%

“Core compounder.”

David TepperT1

5.9%

“Core AI infrastructure holding.”

Andreas Halvorsen

4.8%

“Quality AI infrastructure play.”

Joel Greenblatt

4.1%

“Quality compounder. Magic Formula stalwart.”

Lee Ainslie

3.8%

“Long-held compounder.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MSFT, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 12 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 12 institutional holdings and the -8 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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All Technology names →

Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of MSFT's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.