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Signal dossier · Q4 2025
MSFT
Microsoft · Technology
HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale
BUY
Score: +17 / +100
WEAK BUY
3 tracked managers buying with 4 on a 5+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
+17
Buy component
+28
Dissent penalty
−6
Unanimity bonus
+10
Quality differential
-2
Info density
+12
Buyers / Sellers
3 / 2
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Multi-quarter conviction
Managers who have been moving the same direction on MSFT for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.
Smart money activity
Every tracked 13F move on MSFT — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.
Smart money activity
19 buys · 2 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: STRONG BUY
Q4 2025(5 moves)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith | 11.20% |
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital | 8.90% |
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors | 4.80% |
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office | 8.20% |
Cantillon Capital Management | 7.80% |
Q3 2025(5 moves)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith | 11.00% |
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital | 8.00% |
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital | 3.80% |
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management | 9.80% |
Cantillon Capital Management | 8.30% |
Q2 2025(1 move)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors | 3.80% |
Q4 2024(4 moves)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office | 9.50% |
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith | 11.00% |
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management | 8.60% |
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors | 4.20% |
Q3 2024(3 moves)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office | 8.30% |
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith | 10.50% |
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management | 6.80% |
Q2 2024(1 move)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office | 7.00% |
Q1 2024(2 moves)
| Portfolio manager | % portfolio |
|---|---|
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office | 6.00% |
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith | 10.00% |
Insider activity
What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.
Insider activity (Form 4)
0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER SELLING
| Insider | Value |
|---|---|
Satya Nadella CEO & Chairman | $33.15M |
Latest news
Recent headlines for MSFT — context for the moves above.
Current ownership
12 tracked superinvestors currently hold MSFT as a top position.
| Manager | % Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Chris Hohn Core AI infrastructure holding. | 13.1% |
| Terry Smith Top position. Held since 2011. | 11.2% |
| Chase Coleman AI infrastructure leader. | 10.7% |
| Polen Capital Core compounder. Decade-long hold. | 9.4% |
| Stanley Druckenmiller Other half of the AI infrastructure trade. | 9.1% |
| John Armitage Core quality compounder. | 8.9% |
| Stephen Mandel Quality compounder since 2014. | 7.8% |
| William von Mueffling Core compounder. | 7.8% |
| David Tepper Core AI infrastructure holding. | 5.9% |
| Andreas Halvorsen Quality AI infrastructure play. | 4.8% |
| Joel Greenblatt Quality compounder. Magic Formula stalwart. | 4.1% |
| Lee Ainslie Long-held compounder. | 3.8% |
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HoldLens Signal combines multi-factor recommendation scoring with live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.