Signal dossier · Q1 2026

NVDA

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

6Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

2 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+31

Dissent penalty

−24

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-6

Info density

+15

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 4

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

+15

Insider activity (Form 4)

-4

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−24

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 8·Buyers: 35·Sellers: 19·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.2% ±3.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +8 for NVDA

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+15	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	-4	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	0	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+10	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+24	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+8	−100 to +100	(raw sum 55 clamped to score 8)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For NVDA specifically: 35 buyers vs 19 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling NVDA each quarter — last 2 years.

16 buy moves·4 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on NVDA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Stanley Druckenmiller
Duquesne Family Office
T13Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on NVDA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

35 buys · 19 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Doubling down on AI infrastructure.	Add 25.00%	+180K	10.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Still leaning into AI infrastructure.	Add 18.00%	+520K	6.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) AI infrastructure conviction.	Add 20.00%	+230K	9.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+3.95M	2.60%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Continuing to trim the NVDA home run. Taking profits.	Reduce 25.00%	-425K	8.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Taking some NVDA profits.	Reduce 10.00%	-380K	7.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 15.00%	-969K	4.20%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 12.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q3 2025(9 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Big NVDA add.	Add 35.00%	+225K	8.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Pre-trim NVDA build.	Add 15.00%	+440K	7.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) Building NVDA.	Add 25.00%	+280K	7.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 14.00%	+2.66M	2.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 36850%	+6.28M	3.80%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Buy (new)	+1.00M	13.50%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First NVDA profit-take round.	Reduce 18.00%	-374K	11.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-3.68M	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 10.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q2 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 483%	+1.45M	4.30%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 7.00%	+742K	5.40%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 93.00%	+1.35M	5.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+17K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 285%	+12K	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First NVDA trim of the cycle.	Reduce 12.00%	-275K	13.80%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 44.00%	-2.86M	1.70%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Sell (exit)	-900K	0.00%

Q1 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Small NVDA add before the trim cycle began.	Add 5.00%	+120K	15.60%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 222%	+4.51M	2.30%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 13.00%	+1.28M	4.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+2.89M	2.10%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+1.45M	2.40%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Buy (new)	+900K	49.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 56.00%	-380K	0.40%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 11.00%	-6.00M	4.50%

Q4 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Pre-trim NVDA accumulation.	Add 8.00%	+220K	14.60%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Loaded up on NVDA.	Add 30.00%	+200K	8.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding NVDA.	Add 18.00%	+510K	6.70%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 6.00%	+235	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 10.00%	-233K	0.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 17.00%	-10.61M	5.50%

Q3 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Pre-trim NVDA accumulation.	Add 12.00%	+290K	13.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management NVDA buildup.	Add 25.00%	+165K	7.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 64.00%	+881K	1.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+4K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 23.00%	-18.56M	5.80%

Q2 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office NVDA buildup.	Add 22.00%	+480K	12.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management NVDA build.	Add 18.00%	+110K	5.80%

Q1 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office NVDA major add.	Add 30.00%	+540K	11.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Tepper's first NVDA position.	Buy (new)	+730K	5.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 2 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Jensen Huang CEO & Founder 10b5-1 plan — first batch of 2026.	sell	240,000	$33.12M	Jan 15, 2026
Mark Stevens Director Year-end discretionary sale.	sell	60,000	$8.10M	Dec 20, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for NVDA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on NVDA

Technology sector →→ Ranks #28 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in NVDA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Stanley DruckenmillerT1

11.4%

“Top AI infrastructure pick. Sized aggressively.”

David TepperT1

10.2%

“Top position — AI infrastructure.”

Tom Slater

9.4%

“AI infrastructure core.”

Chase Coleman

7.1%

“AI compute toll booth.”

John ArmitageT1

6.4%

“AI compute leader.”

Andreas Halvorsen

6.2%

“AI compute leader.”

Stephen MandelT1

5.1%

“AI infrastructure.”

Lee Ainslie

3.1%

“AI infrastructure.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for NVDA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 8 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 8 institutional holdings and the +8 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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Tickers owned by ≥2 of NVDA's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.