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Signal dossier · Q1 2026

TSM logoTSM

Taiwan Semi · Technology

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.
ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale
Net selling
−3
4Q ACCUM
on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling
8 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
−3
Buy component
+33
Dissent penalty
−35
Unanimity bonus
+10
Quality differential
+4
Info density
+17
Buyers / Sellers
2 / 8
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
−3
Smart money (13F)
+17
Insider activity (Form 4)
+1
Track record (CAGR)
+0
Trend streak
+10
Concentration
+5
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−35
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 2·Buyers: 26·Sellers: 35·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.1% ±3.3%·How this is computed
Why this score?
See the 9 factors that produced −3 for TSM

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

FactorContribution
Smart money+17
Insider activity+1
Track record0
Trend streak+10
Concentration+5
Contrarian bonus0
8-K events0
Dissent+35
Crowding0
Sum (clamped −100/+100)−3

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For TSM specifically: 26 buyers vs 35 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling TSM each quarter — last 2 years.

6 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying
'24 Q1
'24 Q2
1
'24 Q3
'24 Q4
1
'25 Q1
1
'25 Q2
2
'25 Q3
1
'25 Q4
'26 Q1
Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat
+1 owners over 8Q
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
2
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on TSM for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on TSM — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
26 buys · 35 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: Heavy selling
Q4 2025(10 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Wedgewood Partners
9.10%
Appaloosa Management
5.00%
Viking Global Investors
4.00%
Polen Capital Management
0.30%
Giverny Capital
0.20%
Duquesne Family Office
3.70%
Tiger Global Management
3.80%
Maverick Capital
1.80%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q3 2025(10 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
5.20%
Wedgewood Partners
7.70%
Giverny Capital
3.90%
Polen Capital Management
0.20%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Lone Pine Capital
6.20%
Viking Global Investors
2.90%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Maverick Capital
3.40%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Q2 2025(10 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
4.50%
Appaloosa Management
3.60%
Tiger Global Management
3.00%
Wedgewood Partners
9.50%
Lone Pine Capital
5.50%
Viking Global Investors
2.80%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Maverick Capital
4.30%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.40%
Fairfax Financial
1.20%
Q1 2025(7 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
4.10%
Appaloosa Management
0.50%
Viking Global Investors
2.60%
Tiger Global Management
2.60%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.40%
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Q4 2024(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
0.60%
Viking Global Investors
2.60%
Appaloosa Management
0.80%
Lone Pine Capital
5.50%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Q3 2024(8 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
4.00%
Giverny Capital
0.10%
Tiger Global Management
2.70%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Appaloosa Management
1.00%
Lone Pine Capital
5.50%
Maverick Capital
4.20%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)
58 buys · 0 sells from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER BUYING
InsiderValue
Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang
SVP and Deputy Co-COO
$5K
Yuan Lipen
VP
$3K
Yoo Chue-San
VP
$4K
Yeap Choh Fei
SVP
$4K
Wu Shien-Yang
SVP
$4K
Wei Che-Chia
Chairman and CEO
$11K
Wang Ying-Lang
SVP
$4K
Tien Bor-Zen
VP
$502.74
Tien Bor-Zen
VP
$3K
Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang
SVP and Deputy Co-COO
$5K
Yuan Lipen
VP
$3K
Yoo Chue-San
VP
$4K
Wei Che-Chia
Chairman and CEO
$11K
Yeap Choh Fei
SVP
$4K
Tien Bor-Zen
VP
$502.74
Tien Bor-Zen
VP
$3K
Wu Shien-Yang
SVP
$4K
Wang Ying-Lang
SVP
$4K
Liaw Yung-Haw
VP
$4K
Lin Chris Horng-Dar
VP and CIO
$4K
Lin Shyue-Shyh
VP
$3K
Lu Lee-Chung
VP
$4K
Mii Yuh-Jier
EVP and Co-COO
$5K
Huang Jen-Chau
SVP and CFO
$2K
Hsu Kuo-Chin
VP
$4K
Lee Chun-Hsien
VP
$4K
Hwang Yuan-Ko
VP
$3K
Jang Syun-Ming
VP
$4K
Hou Yung-Chin
SVP and Deputy Co-COO
$5K
Fang Shu-Hua
SVP and GC
$4K
Chuang Tzu-Sou
VP
$3K
Chuang Juiping
VP
$4K
He Jun
VP
$4K
Chang Tzonz-Sheng
SVP
$4K
Cao Min
VP
$4K
Chen Pei-Hung
VP
$4K
Chin Yung-Pei
EVP and Co-COO
$5K
Chen Chih-Ho
Controller
$2K
Mii Yuh-Jier
EVP and Co-COO
$5K
Lu Lee-Chung
VP
$4K
Lin Shyue-Shyh
VP
$3K
Lin Chris Horng-Dar
VP and CIO
$4K
Liaw Yung-Haw
VP
$4K
Lee Chun-Hsien
VP
$4K
Jang Syun-Ming
VP
$4K
Hwang Yuan-Ko
VP
$3K
Huang Jen-Chau
SVP and CFO
$2K
Hsu Kuo-Chin
VP
$4K
Hou Yung-Chin
SVP and Deputy Co-COO
$5K
He Jun
VP
$4K
Fang Shu-Hua
SVP and GC
$4K
Chuang Tzu-Sou
VP
$3K
Chuang Juiping
VP
$4K
Chin Yung-Pei
EVP and Co-COO
$5K
Chen Pei-Hung
VP
$4K
Chen Chih-Ho
Controller
$2K
Chang Tzonz-Sheng
SVP
$4K
Cao Min
VP
$4K

Latest news

Recent headlines for TSM — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on TSM

Each bar is one manager’s position size in TSM as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

AI picks and shovels.
The picks-and-shovels AI play.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for TSM, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 2 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the -3 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.