Signal dossier · Q1 2026

AAPL

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

See the backtest →

ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−20

6Q TRIM

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

2 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−20

Buy component

Dissent penalty

−23

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-6

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−20

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

-3

Track record (CAGR)

-2

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−23

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 3·Buyers: 12·Sellers: 26·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.6% ±2.7%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −20 for AAPL

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+6	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	-3	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-2	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	0	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+2	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+23	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−20	−100 to +100	(raw sum 26 clamped to score -20)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For AAPL specifically: 12 buyers vs 26 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

Share this signal

8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling AAPL each quarter — last 2 years.

0 buy moves·7 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-5 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on AAPL for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway
T16Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on AAPL — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

12 buys · 26 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy selling

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 16.00%	+1.68M	1.80%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small continued trim. Stabilizing.	Reduce 3.00%	-9.00M	21.80%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners Small 19-year Apple trim.	Reduce 5.00%	-30K	10.20%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital	Sell (exit)	-1K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 50.00%	-8K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 7.00%	-48K	0.20%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 6.00%	+620K	1.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 80.00%	+7K	0.00%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small Apple trim.	Reduce 5.00%	-15.00M	22.40%

Q2 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 81.00%	+8K	0.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Reduce 7.00%	-20.00M	22.30%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Sell (exit)	-1.25M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 100%	-2.67M	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 8.00%	-64K	0.10%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Buy (new)	+1.25M	3.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 45.00%	-8K	0.10%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Reduce 65.00%	-207K	1.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 57.00%	-3.49M	1.90%

Q4 2024(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 72.00%	+7K	0.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 27.00%	+2.22M	3.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 10.00%	+75K	0.20%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continued trimming AAPL.	Reduce 7.00%	-22.50M	23.40%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Sell (exit)	-1.56M	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-4.86M	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-930K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-567K	4.20%

Q3 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 6.00%	+268K	4.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+6.74M	4.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continued AAPL reduction.	Reduce 25.00%	-100.00M	25.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-24K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 52.00%	-1.02M	2.90%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Reduce 58.00%	-442K	3.00%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway The famous massive AAPL trim — half the position cut.	Reduce 49.00%	-390.00M	30.50%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway First major AAPL trim.	Reduce 13.00%	-116.00M	40.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 4 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Borders Ben Principal Accounting Officer	sell	1,274	$369K	May 8, 2026
Borders Ben Principal Accounting Officer	sell	1,274	$369K	May 8, 2026
Tim Cook CEO Annual 10b5-1 vesting.	sell	200,000	$49.60M	Dec 10, 2025
Luca Maestri Former CFO Post-CFO transition liquidation.	sell	18,000	$4.23M	Nov 3, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for AAPL — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on AAPL

Technology sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in AAPL as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Warren BuffettT1

22.4%

“The consumer brand Buffett called 'probably the best business I know in the world'.”

David RolfeT1

10.2%

“Top position — 19-year hold.”

Joel Greenblatt

3.8%

“High ROIC, reasonable multiple.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for AAPL, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 3 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 3 institutional holdings and the -20 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Technology

Top conviction in this sector

All Technology names →

Remove with Pro →

Share the AAPL signal

Post LinkedIn Reddit Facebook

The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.