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Signal dossier · Q1 2026

LLY logoLLY

Eli Lilly · Other

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.
ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale
Net selling
−6
on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling
1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE selling pattern.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
−6
Buy component
+6
Dissent penalty
−13
Unanimity bonus
0
Quality differential
-7
Info density
+6
Buyers / Sellers
2 / 1
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
−6
Smart money (13F)
+6
Insider activity (Form 4)
+0
Track record (CAGR)
-2
Trend streak
+0
Concentration
+2
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−13
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 1·Buyers: 15·Sellers: 12·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.6% ±3.3%·How this is computed
Why this score?
See the 9 factors that produced −6 for LLY

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

FactorContribution
Smart money+6
Insider activity0
Track record-2
Trend streak0
Concentration+2
Contrarian bonus0
8-K events0
Dissent+13
Crowding0
Sum (clamped −100/+100)−6

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For LLY specifically: 15 buyers vs 12 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling
-2 owners over 8Q
3
3
3
4
4
4
1
1
1
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on LLY — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
15 buys · 12 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: Heavy accumulation
Q4 2025(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.30%
Polen Capital Management
5.70%
Q3 2025(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.20%
Duquesne Family Office
0.00%
Viking Global Investors
0.00%
Tiger Global Management
0.00%
Polen Capital Management
4.00%
Q2 2025(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
1.90%
Viking Global Investors
0.90%
Tiger Global Management
3.50%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Lone Pine Capital
0.00%
Gotham Asset Management
0.20%
Q1 2025(4 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
2.60%
Polen Capital Management
4.60%
Lone Pine Capital
3.90%
Gotham Asset Management
0.50%
Q4 2024(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Duquesne Family Office
1.30%
Lone Pine Capital
4.50%
Tiger Global Management
3.80%
Polen Capital Management
2.70%
Viking Global Investors
0.00%
Q3 2024(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.80%
Polen Capital Management
1.10%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for LLY — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on LLY

Each bar is one manager’s position size in LLY as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Weight loss leader + immunology pipeline.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for LLY, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -6 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.