Signal dossier · Q1 2026

UBER

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

+16

2Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

3 tracked managers buying with 1 on a 2+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+16

Buy component

+29

Dissent penalty

−14

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-2

Info density

+16

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+16

Smart money (13F)

+16

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-1

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−14

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 22·Sellers: 13·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +12.4% ±2.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +16 for UBER

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+16	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-1	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+5	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+9	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+14	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+16	−100 to +100	(raw sum 43 clamped to score 16)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For UBER specifically: 22 buyers vs 13 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling UBER each quarter — last 2 years.

3 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on UBER for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Bill Ackman
Pershing Square Capital
2Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on UBER — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

22 buys · 13 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management New Uber position — AV optionality thesis.	Buy (new)	+3.50M	4.10%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Heavy add on the autonomous vehicle optionality.	Add 35.00%	+2.80M	3.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 27.00%	+694K	0.10%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-1.50M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-1.00M	1.20%

Q3 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Entered Uber on AV optionality.	Buy (new)	+8.30M	2.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 12.00%	+266K	0.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 24572%	+4.55M	1.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 12.00%	-343K	3.20%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Reduce 64.00%	-2.66M	0.00%

Q2 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Add 32.00%	+1.00M	0.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 12.00%	+248K	0.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+19K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 86.00%	+1.98M	0.30%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 14.00%	-450K	4.00%

Q1 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 113%	+1.70M	2.80%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Buy (new)	+30.30M	18.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 21.00%	+357K	0.10%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Buy (new)	+2.30M	0.10%
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management	Add 31.00%	+1.26M	2.70%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Reduce 70.00%	-7.39M	0.10%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Reduce 94.00%	-2.45M	0.00%

Q4 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 6.00%	+90K	1.40%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Buy (new)	+10.55M	0.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 270%	+1.22M	0.10%

Q3 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management	Add 65.00%	+1.59M	2.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 6.00%	-90K	1.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Reduce 14.00%	-409K	0.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 59.00%	-635K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-2.10M	0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

4 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Hazelbaker Jill See Remarks	buy	38,273	$0	May 11, 2026
Hazelbaker Jill See Remarks	buy	16,855	$0	May 11, 2026
Hazelbaker Jill See Remarks	buy	38,273	$0	May 11, 2026
Hazelbaker Jill See Remarks	buy	16,855	$0	May 11, 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi CEO 10b5-1 plan.	sell	60,000	$4.68M	Dec 22, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for UBER — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on UBER

Industrials sector →→ Ranks #34 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in UBER as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

David TepperT1

4.1%

“Autonomous vehicle optionality.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for UBER, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the +16 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.