Signal dossier · Q1 2026

OXY

Occidental Petroleum · Energy

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

+22

7Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

1 tracked manager buying with 2 on a 7+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+22

Buy component

+29

Dissent penalty

−7

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-14

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+22

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−7

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 3·Buyers: 14·Sellers: 4·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +14.3% ±2.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +22 for OXY

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+7	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	+2	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	+2	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+8	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+7	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+22	−100 to +100	(raw sum 36 clamped to score 22)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For OXY specifically: 14 buyers vs 4 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling OXY each quarter — last 2 years.

9 buy moves·3 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on OXY for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Carl Icahn
Icahn Enterprises
3Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on OXY — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

14 buys · 4 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continuing to build the Occidental stake.	Add 12.00%	+30.60M	5.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 46.00%	+834K	0.10%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial Aligning with Buffett on Occidental.	Add 15.00%	+510K	15.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Continued Occidental trim.	Reduce 12.00%	-2.16M	4.20%

Q3 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Building the Occidental stake.	Add 8.00%	+18.90M	4.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 134%	+1.04M	0.10%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial Aligning with Buffett on Occidental.	Add 20.00%	+560K	13.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Pullback from Occidental.	Reduce 15.00%	-2.70M	4.80%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Q2 add to Occidental — the first of three consecutive quarters.	Add 5.00%	+11.40M	4.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Starting the Occidental pullback.	Reduce 20.00%	-3.80M	5.60%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Early OXY build.	Add 4.00%	+8.70M	4.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 173%	+490K	0.00%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Slow OXY accumulation.	Add 4.00%	+8.90M	4.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 263%	+206K	0.00%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway OXY add.	Add 3.00%	+7.80M	4.00%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small OXY add.	Add 2.00%	+4.30M	3.70%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Vicki Hollub CEO First open-market buy in 18 months.	buy	25,000	$1.23M	Feb 4, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for OXY — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on OXY

Energy sector →→ Ranks #9 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in OXY as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Prem Watsa

13.5%

“Energy float compounder, aligned with Buffett.”

Warren BuffettT1

4.9%

“Building toward a potential majority stake.”

Carl Icahn

4.8%

“Activist position vs management — scaled back.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for OXY, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 3 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 3 institutional holdings and the +22 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.