Signal dossier · Q1 2026

MA

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Mixed signal

5Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Mixed

Mixed or absent signals. Smart money is not decisively moving.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+27

Dissent penalty

−27

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-9

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 5

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−27

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 6·Buyers: 15·Sellers: 20·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.8% ±2.3%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced 0 for MA

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+7	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	+1	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+9	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+27	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	0	−100 to +100	(raw sum 54 clamped to score 0)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For MA specifically: 15 buyers vs 20 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MA each quarter — last 2 years.

8 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on MA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

15 buys · 20 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy selling

Q4 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management Adding to Mastercard — long-time core.	Add 4.00%	+250K	17.80%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital Adding to 17-year Mastercard position.	Add 6.00%	+12K	11.20%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Buy (new)	+96K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-610K	5.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 6.00%	-96K	0.70%

Q3 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management Akre core position add.	Add 5.00%	+180K	17.40%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital Mastercard add.	Add 4.00%	+8K	10.60%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Sell (exit)	-28K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-251K	5.10%

Q2 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 34.00%	+320K	0.80%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 44.00%	-22K	0.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-219K	5.20%

Q1 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 22.00%	+167K	0.70%
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-373K	17.60%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 23.00%	-15K	0.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-281K	5.50%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 9.00%	-166K	0.80%

Q4 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management Mastercard core add.	Add 5.00%	+290K	17.50%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Mastercard add.	Add 5.00%	+170K	9.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 8.00%	-68K	0.70%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-341K	5.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 13.00%	-264K	0.70%

Q3 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management Mastercard core.	Add 4.00%	+230K	17.00%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 10.00%	+2K	0.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 16.00%	+117K	0.80%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Buy (new)	+422	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Sell (exit)	-1.04M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-407K	4.90%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chuck AkreTier 1 Akre Capital Management Mastercard add.	Add 3.00%	+175K	16.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Michael Miebach CEO 10b5-1 plan.	sell	8,500	$4.46M	Jan 18, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for MA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on MA

Financials sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Chuck AkreT1

17.8%

“Largest position. Held since 2010. Core compounder.”

François RochonT1

11.2%

“Top conviction. 17-year hold.”

Dev KantesariaT1

11.2%

“Other payment network.”

Terry SmithT1

9.8%

“Payment network compounder.”

Polen Capital

5.6%

“Payment network.”

Andreas Halvorsen

3.7%

“The other payment network.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of mixed positioning from 6 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 6 institutional holdings and the 0 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Financials

Top conviction in this sector

All Financials names →

Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of MA's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.