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Signal dossier · Q1 2026

MCO logoMCO

Moody's Corp · Financials

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.
ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale
Net buying
+16
on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation
4 tracked managers buying MODERATE signal.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
+16
Buy component
+33
Dissent penalty
−17
Unanimity bonus
+4
Quality differential
-1
Info density
+12
Buyers / Sellers
4 / 2
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
+16
Smart money (13F)
+12
Insider activity (Form 4)
+0
Track record (CAGR)
+7
Trend streak
+1
Concentration
+10
Contrarian bonus
+3
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−17
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 7·Buyers: 11·Sellers: 18·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +17.1% ±4%·How this is computed
Why this score?
See the 9 factors that produced +16 for MCO

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

FactorContribution
Smart money+12
Insider activity0
Track record+7
Trend streak+1
Concentration+10
Contrarian bonus+3
8-K events0
Dissent+17
Crowding0
Sum (clamped −100/+100)+16

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For MCO specifically: 11 buyers vs 18 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MCO each quarter — last 2 years.

2 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying
'24 Q1
'24 Q2
'24 Q3
'24 Q4
'25 Q1
'25 Q2
'25 Q3
2
'25 Q4
'26 Q1
Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat
+1 owners over 8Q
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MCO — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
11 buys · 18 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: Heavy selling
Q4 2025(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Valley Forge Capital
22.40%
Cantillon Capital Management
6.40%
Akre Capital Management
9.70%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q3 2025(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
10.10%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q2 2025(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q1 2025(4 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Akre Capital Management
10.90%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q4 2024(3 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
12.60%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.30%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%
Q3 2024(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Valley Forge Capital
16.90%
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Brave Warrior Advisors
0.00%
Akre Capital Management
13.30%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.70%
Oakmark Funds
0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)
0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER SELLING
InsiderValue
Robert Fauber
CEO
$2.40M

Latest news

Recent headlines for MCO — context for the moves above.

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MCO as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Top position. 15+ year hold. Credit rating duopoly.
Credit rating duopoly. Held since 2012.
13.4%
Credit rating duopoly.
Credit rating duopoly.
Credit rating duopoly.
Credit rating duopoly.
Duopoly credit-rating franchise. Held since 2000.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MCO, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 7 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 7 institutional holdings and the +16 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.