Signal dossier · Q1 2026

CB

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

+16

4Q ACCUM

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

1 tracked manager buying with 1 on a 4+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+16

Buy component

+18

Dissent penalty

−3

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+16

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-3

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−3

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 14·Sellers: 3·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.2% ±2.1%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +16 for CB

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+9	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-3	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+2	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+3	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+16	−100 to +100	(raw sum 21 clamped to score 16)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For CB specifically: 14 buyers vs 3 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling CB each quarter — last 2 years.

4 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on CB for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway
T14Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on CB — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

14 buys · 3 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Adding to insurance — home turf for Berkshire.	Add 8.00%	+2.16M	3.10%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners	Buy (new)	+57K	3.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.01M	0.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 52.00%	+1.44M	0.70%

Q3 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Add 16.00%	+4.30M	3.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 75.00%	+1.20M	0.50%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 13.00%	+188K	0.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-1.95M	0.00%

Q1 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway New Chubb position — surprise quarter entry.	Buy (new)	+24.00M	2.10%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.95M	1.90%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 20.00%	+231K	0.40%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Adding Chubb — second build.	Add 8.00%	+1.90M	1.90%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-35K	0.00%

Q3 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+35K	0.30%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire's first Chubb position revealed.	Buy (new)	+26.00M	1.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for CB — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on CB

Financials sector →→ Ranks #40 of 64 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in CB as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Warren BuffettT1

2.9%

“Insurance — Buffett's home turf. Recent build.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for CB, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the +16 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Financials

Top conviction in this sector

All Financials names →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.