Signal dossier · Q1 2026

NFLX

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−1

3Q ACCUM

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

2 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−1

Buy component

+14

Dissent penalty

−15

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-6

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−1

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-5

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−15

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 3·Buyers: 16·Sellers: 14·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9.8% ±2.1%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −1 for NFLX

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+9	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-5	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+8	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+2	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+15	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−1	−100 to +100	(raw sum 29 clamped to score -1)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For NFLX specifically: 16 buyers vs 14 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling NFLX each quarter — last 2 years.

4 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on NFLX for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Bill Nygren
Oakmark Funds
3Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on NFLX — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

16 buys · 14 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital Adding Netflix.	Add 35.00%	+180K	3.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 1108%	+2.24M	0.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 691%	+2.32M	0.10%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 912%	+33.29M	2.90%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds Adding to Netflix on profitability.	Add 12.00%	+36K	4.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-501K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 64.00%	-305K	0.10%

Q3 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+501K	1.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Buy (new)	+202K	0.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 22.00%	+60K	0.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds Netflix profitability story.	Add 10.00%	+27K	3.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 41.00%	-336K	1.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 7.00%	-254K	3.20%

Q2 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds Building Netflix.	Add 8.00%	+22K	3.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-749K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-73K	3.40%

Q1 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 49.00%	+247K	2.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 8.00%	+21K	0.30%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 49.00%	-840K	2.60%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 10.00%	-441K	3.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 13.00%	-487	0.00%

Q4 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 145%	+297K	1.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 14.00%	+33K	0.30%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-180K	4.20%

Q3 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 78.00%	-728K	0.50%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-211K	3.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Ted Sarandos Co-CEO 10b5-1 plan.	sell	14,000	$10.01M	Jan 20, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for NFLX — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on NFLX

Communication sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in NFLX as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

John ArmitageT1

3.9%

“Streaming profitability turn.”

Bill Nygren

3.6%

“Streaming pivot to profitability.”

Lee Ainslie

3.4%

“Streaming profitability turn.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for NFLX, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 3 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 3 institutional holdings and the -1 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Communication

Top conviction in this sector

All Communication names →

Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of NFLX's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.