Signal dossier · Q1 2026

NKE

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−2

6Q ACCUM

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

2 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−2

Buy component

+17

Dissent penalty

−19

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-9

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−2

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-3

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−19

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 17·Sellers: 11·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.7% ±1.4%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −2 for NKE

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+7	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-3	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+10	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+3	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+19	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−2	−100 to +100	(raw sum 36 clamped to score -2)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For NKE specifically: 17 buyers vs 11 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling NKE each quarter — last 2 years.

6 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on NKE for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Bill Ackman
Pershing Square Capital
6Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on NKE — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

17 buys · 11 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Doubling down on the Nike turnaround thesis.	Add 20.00%	+3.20M	6.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 24.00%	+19K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 72.00%	+6.28M	1.20%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 6.00%	-359K	2.10%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-9.00M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Sell (exit)	-4K	0.00%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Nike turnaround thesis — first big add.	Add 22.00%	+3.50M	5.30%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 29.00%	+2.03M	1.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 31.00%	+19K	0.00%

Q2 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital First major Nike add — 3 consecutive quarters building.	Add 18.00%	+2.80M	4.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 26.00%	+1.42M	1.40%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+8.75M	1.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 41.00%	-3K	0.00%

Q1 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Ackman's first Nike position.	Buy (new)	+13.00M	3.10%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+5.55M	1.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 48.00%	-56K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 54.00%	-7K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 28.00%	-51K	0.00%

Q4 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Doubling on Nike turnaround.	Add 18.00%	+2.30M	4.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 46.00%	+37K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 11.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q3 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Ackman's debut Nike position.	Buy (new)	+13.20M	3.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 289%	+59K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 11.00%	+18K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 100%	-8.95M	0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 2 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
PARKER MARK G EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN	sell	22,230	$0	May 14, 2026
PARKER MARK G EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN	sell	22,230	$0	May 14, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for NKE — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on NKE

Consumer Discretionary sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in NKE as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Bill Ackman

5.3%

“Recent reentry on turnaround thesis.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for NKE, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -2 conviction score.

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Derived from the same 13F filings

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.