Signal dossier · Q1 2026

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

See the backtest →

ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−5

2Q TRIM

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

3 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−5

Buy component

+13

Dissent penalty

−18

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

0 / 3

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−5

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-4

Trend streak

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−18

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 9·Sellers: 10·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.6% ±3.9%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −5 for CMG

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+5	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	+2	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-4	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	0	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+10	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+18	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−5	−100 to +100	(raw sum 31 clamped to score -5)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For CMG specifically: 9 buyers vs 10 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

Share this signal

8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling CMG each quarter — last 2 years.

1 buy moves·2 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on CMG for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Bill Ackman
Pershing Square Capital
2Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on CMG — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

9 buys · 10 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Net selling

Q4 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Add 68.00%	+159K	0.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 342%	+8.80M	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+4.72M	2.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-6.64M	0.00%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Sell (exit)	-21.54M	0.00%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+233K	0.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 17.00%	+948K	0.70%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Small Chipotle trim after 2024 gains.	Reduce 6.00%	-1.80M	21.40%

Q2 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 67.00%	+1.03M	0.10%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+6.01M	1.00%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Reduce 13.00%	-3.11M	9.10%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 64.00%	+589K	0.10%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Reduce 14.00%	-4.16M	11.80%

Q3 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 60.00%	-1.36M	0.10%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Small CMG trim after gains.	Reduce 4.00%	-1.00M	22.50%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital More Chipotle.	Add 6.00%	+1.80M	23.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Scott Boatwright CEO First buy as new CEO — vote of confidence.	buy	15,000	$900K	Jan 12, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for CMG — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on CMG

Consumer Discretionary sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in CMG as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Bill Ackman

21.4%

“Top position. Quality compounder thesis.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for CMG, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -5 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Consumer Discretionary

Top conviction in this sector

All Consumer Discretionary names →

Remove with Pro →

Share the CMG signal

Post LinkedIn Reddit Facebook

The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.