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Signal dossier · Q1 2026

DNUT logoDNUT

Krispy Kreme · Consumer Discretionary

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.
ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale
Net selling
−4
2Q ACCUM
on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling
0 tracked manager selling. MODERATE selling pattern.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
−4
Buy component
+-4
Dissent penalty
−0
Unanimity bonus
+5
Quality differential
+0
Info density
+0
Buyers / Sellers
0 / 0
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
−4
Smart money (13F)
+0
Insider activity (Form 4)
+0
Track record (CAGR)
-10
Trend streak
+5
Concentration
+1
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−0
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 1·Buyers: 2·Sellers: 0·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: -5.2% ±0%·How this is computed
Why this score?
See the 9 factors that produced −4 for DNUT

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

FactorContribution
Smart money0
Insider activity0
Track record-10
Trend streak+5
Concentration+1
Contrarian bonus0
8-K events0
Dissent0
Crowding0
Sum (clamped −100/+100)−4

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling DNUT each quarter — last 2 years.

2 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying
'24 Q1
'24 Q2
'24 Q3
'24 Q4
'25 Q1
'25 Q2
1
'25 Q3
1
'25 Q4
'26 Q1
Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat
+0 owners over 8Q
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on DNUT for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on DNUT — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
2 buys · 0 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: Heavy accumulation
Q4 2025(1 move)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Icahn Enterprises
2.90%
Q3 2025(1 move)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Icahn Enterprises
2.40%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)
0 buys · 14 sells from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER SELLING
InsiderValue
Duvivier Raphael
Chief Financial Officer
$8K
Duvivier Raphael
Chief Financial Officer
$8K
Suess Lori M.
Head of People and Culture
$2K
Steele Nicola
Chief Operating Officer
$30K
Suess Lori M.
Head of People and Culture
$2K
Esposito Joseph J
Chief Accounting Officer
$13K
Steele Nicola
Chief Operating Officer
$30K
Holder Alison
Chief Brand & Product Officer
$13K
Duvivier Raphael
Chief Financial Officer
$22K
Charlesworth Josh
President & CEO
$15K
Holder Alison
Chief Brand & Product Officer
$13K
Esposito Joseph J
Chief Accounting Officer
$13K
Duvivier Raphael
Chief Financial Officer
$22K
Charlesworth Josh
President & CEO
$15K

Latest news

Recent headlines for DNUT — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on DNUT

Each bar is one manager’s position size in DNUT as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Brand recovery play.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for DNUT, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -4 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.