Signal dossier · Q1 2026

KW

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings · Real Estate

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−5

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

0 tracked manager selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−5

Buy component

+-5

Dissent penalty

−0

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

0 / 0

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−5

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-6

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−0

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 6·Sellers: 0·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9% ±0%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −5 for KW

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+1	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-6	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	0	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	0	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	0	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−5	−100 to +100

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring.

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on KW — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

6 buys · 0 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q4 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 44.00%	+28K	0.00%

Q3 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 129%	+37K	0.00%

Q2 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 19.00%	+4K	0.00%

Q1 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 20.00%	+4K	0.00%

Q4 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 56.00%	+7K	0.00%

Q3 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Buy (new)	+13K	0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for KW — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on KW

Real Estate sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in KW as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Prem Watsa

9.8%

“Real estate asset manager, book value discount.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for KW, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -5 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.