PAULSON & CO. INC.

Conviction score = logistic(role_weight × (buy_value − 0.2 × discretionary_sell_value)) mapped to −100..+100. CEOs and founders carry role_weight 0.95-1.0; directors 0.5; former executives 0.3. Routine 10b5-1 schedule sales are weighted down sharply — insiders file pre-arranged selling plans that trigger independent of their view of the stock, so they carry minimal signal. Open-market discretionary buys are rare and carry the heaviest weight.

Role weight: 0.40 (Insider).

Data sourced from SEC Form 4 filings via EDGAR. Curated subset (not every filing) — we prioritize CEO/CFO/Chair/10%-owner transactions and material $ amounts over noise.