Cross-Filer Pattern
Divergence
Where the smart money is split: tickers with ≥2 tracked superinvestors net buying AND ≥2 net selling in the same quarter. The debate signal — when conviction actively disagrees.
Currently 238 divergence events across all tracked quarters · 36 in the latest quarter (Q4 2025).
Q4 2025 divergence (36)
META
Intensity score: 770
Buying (11)
- Li Lu (add, +15%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +10%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +78%)
- Jeffrey Ubben (add, +10%)
- Stephen Mandel (add, +3%)
- Lee Ainslie (add, +50%)
- Chase Coleman (add, +18%)
- John Armitage (add, +15%)
- François Rochon (add, +12%)
- Bill Ackman (new, +100%)
- Bill Nygren (add, +12%)
Selling (7)
- Chris Hohn (trim, -6%)
- Chuck Akre (trim, -10%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -8%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -22%)
- David Tepper (trim, -8%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (exit, -100%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -17%)
AMZN
Intensity score: 420
Buying (6)
- Andreas Halvorsen (new, +100%)
- Bill Ackman (add, +65%)
- David Rolfe (new, +100%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +27%)
- Seth Klarman (new, +100%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (add, +92%)
Selling (7)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -9%)
- David Tepper (trim, -13%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -23%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -23%)
- Stephen Mandel (trim, -14%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -7%)
- Warren Buffett (trim, -77%)
MSFT
Intensity score: 240
Buying (4)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +22%)
- Terry Smith (add, +5%)
- John Armitage (add, +12%)
- David Tepper (add, +8%)
Selling (6)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -10%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -6%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -13%)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -16%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -16%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -22%)
TSM
Intensity score: 240
Buying (4)
- David Rolfe (add, +18%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +25%)
- David Tepper (add, +7%)
- Polen Capital (add, +13%)
Selling (6)
- Bill Nygren (exit, -100%)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -19%)
- François Rochon (trim, -96%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -61%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -29%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -15%)
GOOGL
Intensity score: 240
Buying (4)
- Andreas Halvorsen (new, +100%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +9%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (add, +277%)
- Tom Slater (add, +167%)
Selling (6)
- Bill Ackman (trim, -86%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -22%)
- David Rolfe (trim, -21%)
- Glenn Greenberg (trim, -7%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -93%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -44%)
NVDA
Intensity score: 160
Buying (4)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +18%)
- David Tepper (add, +25%)
- Tom Slater (add, +20%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +18%)
Selling (4)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -25%)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -10%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -12%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -15%)
VST
Intensity score: 160
Buying (4)
- Seth Klarman (add, +25%)
- Howard Marks (add, +18%)
- Lee Ainslie (add, +7%)
- Stephen Mandel (add, +11%)
Selling (4)
- David Tepper (trim, -24%)
- Joel Greenblatt (trim, -28%)
- Polen Capital (exit, -100%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (exit, -100%)
V
Intensity score: 160
Buying (4)
- Glenn Greenberg (add, +8%)
- François Rochon (add, +5%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +38%)
- Stephen Mandel (new, +100%)
Selling (4)
- Chuck Akre (trim, -10%)
- Joel Greenblatt (trim, -8%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -22%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -8%)
IVV
Intensity score: 150
Buying (5)
- David Rolfe (new, +100%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +34%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +38%)
- Polen Capital (add, +248%)
- Polen Capital (add, +62%)
Selling (3)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -73%)
- Howard Marks (exit, -100%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -47%)
NFLX
Intensity score: 100
Buying (5)
- Bill Nygren (add, +12%)
- Lee Ainslie (add, +35%)
- Chase Coleman (add, +1108%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +691%)
- Tom Slater (add, +912%)
Selling (2)
- Andreas Halvorsen (exit, -100%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -64%)
NKE
Intensity score: 90
Buying (3)
- Bill Ackman (add, +20%)
- Bill Nygren (add, +72%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +24%)
Selling (3)
- Andreas Halvorsen (exit, -100%)
- Polen Capital (exit, -100%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -6%)
DHR
Intensity score: 90
Buying (3)
- François Rochon (add, +109%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +46%)
- Lee Ainslie (add, +1100%)
Selling (3)
- Andreas Halvorsen (trim, -15%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -22%)
- Chuck Akre (trim, -92%)
Showing 12 of 36. Older quarters below.
By quarter
- Q3 202539 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, GOOGL
- Q2 202529 divergence events · top: META, AMZN, TSM
- Q1 202542 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, BN
- Q4 202441 divergence events · top: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL
- Q3 202426 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, TSM
- Q2 202425 divergence events · top: META, UNH, AAPL
The companion to /consensus/
/consensus/ surfaces tickers where smart money agrees (multiple buyers, no sellers). /divergence/ surfaces the opposite: tickers where smart money explicitly disagrees. Both are valid signals; they answer different questions.
- Consensus = "high conviction this is mispriced." Lower variance, often slower compounding.
- Divergence = "smart money is fighting over the thesis." Higher variance, asymmetric bets in either direction.
What divergence often signals
- Inflection-point trades — value managers exiting on multiple expansion while growth managers building (Tesla 2020-2021)
- Capital-cycle turning points — energy, real estate, mining where some superinvestors call top while others call bottom
- Activist-anticipation — a famously activist-friendly investor building a position while traditional value players exit (often signals incoming campaign)
Methodology
Computed live at build time from 13F filings across 30 tracked superinvestors. A ticker meets the divergence threshold when at least 2 managers filed an "add" or "new" position AND at least 2 managers filed a "trim" or "exit" within the same SEC quarterly window. Intensity = (buyers × sellers × 10) — peaks when the disagreement is large and balanced.
Same disclaimer applies — 45-day 13F filing lag is real; this is structured data on past conviction, not investment advice.
Related
Consensus (where smart money agrees) · Contrarian bets · Best now (top conviction) · All 13F filings