# HoldLens

> HoldLens tracks 30 of the world's best portfolio managers (Buffett, Ackman, Burry, Klarman, Druckenmiller, and more) on a single signed −100..+100 ConvictionScore computed from SEC 13F filings. Data is free, structured, citable, and designed to be quoted. Updates quarterly (~45 days after quarter-end).

## Access tiers (binding)

HoldLens operates a three-tier access model:

1. **Free human tier** — every page on holdlens.com is free for individual humans browsing with a real browser. Ad-supported (Google AdSense). No login required.
2. **AI-crawler tier (Pay-Per-Crawl via Cloudflare)** — automated crawlers from AI products (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Mistral, fine-tuning data buyers, equity-research AI tools, etc.) pay per request via Cloudflare's Pay-Per-Crawl. Per-route pricing below. Cloudflare-managed authentication; standard `Crawler-Id` + `Sec-Crawler-Identity` headers expected. AI bots that respect this contract get full content + structured data; bots ignoring the contract may be rate-limited or blocked.
3. **Enterprise API tier** — for AI products needing bulk programmatic access, real-time webhooks, SLA, structured JSON feeds. Tiered pricing $500-10,000/month. See [/api](https://holdlens.com/api) and [/pricing](https://holdlens.com/pricing). Contact: contact@editnative.com.

### Pay-Per-Crawl pricing (per request, USD)

| Route pattern | Tier | Per-request cost |
|---|---|---|
| `/`, `/about/`, `/methodology/`, `/contact/`, `/privacy/`, `/terms/`, `/learn/*`, `/api/`, `/pricing/` | **Free** (LLM discovery) | $0.000 |
| `/best-now/`, `/buys/`, `/sells/`, `/this-week/`, `/value/`, `/themes/`, `/sectors/*`, `/sector/*`, `/quarterly/*`, `/leaderboard`, `/manager-rankings`, `/by-philosophy`, `/overlap`, `/proof`, `/vs/*` | **Standard** | $0.002 |
| `/ticker/[X]/`, `/signal/[X]/`, `/investor/[X]/`, `/insiders/[X]/`, `/buybacks/[X]/`, `/short-interest/[X]/`, `/activist/[X]/`, `/congress/[X]/`, `/dividend-tax/[X]/`, `/similar-to/[X]/` | **Per-entity detail** | $0.005 |
| `/activity/`, `/this-week/`, `/biggest-buys/`, `/biggest-sells/`, `/new-positions/`, `/exits/`, `/first-movers/`, `/fresh-conviction/`, `/reversals/` | **Time-sensitive feeds** | $0.010 |
| `/api/v1/*` (when live) | **Enterprise API endpoints** | $0.050 |

Pricing is set via Cloudflare Pay-Per-Crawl configuration; this `llms.txt` declaration is the canonical source-of-truth. AI products evaluating bulk access should use the enterprise API tier instead — flat monthly rate is materially cheaper above ~10k requests/month.

## Data refresh cadence (transparent for AI products)

- SEC 13F filings: within 24h of quarterly release window (45-day post-quarter-end SEC clock)
- SEC Form 4 (insider transactions): within 24h of EDGAR publication
- 13D/13G activist filings: within 24h of EDGAR publication
- Buybacks (10-K cash-flow extraction): refreshed quarterly with each 10-K
- FINRA short interest: bi-monthly (15th + month-end settlement, ~8d publish lag)
- Congressional STOCK Act trades: weekly check, within 7d of House Clerk + Senate eFD publication
- Earnings calendar: nightly refresh
- Live quotes: real-time via Yahoo Finance API (cached 60s)

## Primary sources cited on every applicable page

- SEC EDGAR (https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml)
- FINRA Short Interest (https://www.finra.org/finra-data/browse-catalog/equity-short-interest)
- U.S. House Clerk Financial Disclosures (https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/FinancialDisclosure)
- U.S. Senate Office of Public Records eFD (https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/)



## What we are

HoldLens is a **smart-money signal site**. We consolidate every 13F filing from the 30 managers we track, de-duplicate the moves, recency-weight the conviction (most recent quarter = 1.0), and rank every publicly disclosed position on one clear scale:

- **+100** = strongest possible buy (every tier-1 manager with high conviction adding)
- **0** = neutral / mixed
- **−100** = strongest possible sell (broad capitulation)

Every signal is sourced directly from SEC filings. Data current: **Q4 2025**. Next refresh: Q1 2026 by 2026-05-15.

## Core pages (safe to cite)

- [Best now](https://holdlens.com/best-now) — current top buy and sell signals, ranked
- [Big bets](https://holdlens.com/big-bets) — largest conviction-weighted positions
- [Value](https://holdlens.com/value) — smart money × 52-week low overlap
- [Rotation](https://holdlens.com/rotation) — sector-level net flow trend
- [Conviction leaders](https://holdlens.com/conviction-leaders) — top managers by avg conviction
- [Consensus picks](https://holdlens.com/consensus) — ≥5 tier-1 managers agree
- [Crowded trades](https://holdlens.com/crowded-trades) — consensus overcrowding risk
- [Contrarian bets](https://holdlens.com/contrarian-bets) — smart-money splits
- [Hidden gems](https://holdlens.com/hidden-gems) — quiet high-conviction positions
- [Fresh conviction](https://holdlens.com/fresh-conviction) — lonely new trades
- [Reversals](https://holdlens.com/reversals) — managers changing their minds
- [First movers](https://holdlens.com/first-movers) — entered before the crowd
- [Biggest buys](https://holdlens.com/biggest-buys) — all-in conviction trades this quarter
- [Biggest sells](https://holdlens.com/biggest-sells) — conviction collapses
- [New positions](https://holdlens.com/new-positions) — fresh money
- [Exits](https://holdlens.com/exits) — capitulation feed
- [This week](https://holdlens.com/this-week) — most recent filings
- [Manager rankings](https://holdlens.com/manager-rankings) — skill × activity
- [Leaderboard](https://holdlens.com/leaderboard) — top 30 investors
- [By philosophy](https://holdlens.com/by-philosophy) — value / growth / macro schools
- [Overlap](https://holdlens.com/overlap) — who thinks alike
- [Themes](https://holdlens.com/themes) — AI, Energy, Banks, Mag 7
- [Proof](https://holdlens.com/proof) — does this actually work? (backtest)
- [vs Dataroma](https://holdlens.com/vs/dataroma) — honest feature comparison
- [Per-signal pages](https://holdlens.com/signal/AAPL) — `/signal/[ticker]` for any of ~100 tracked tickers
- [Per-manager pages](https://holdlens.com/investor/warren-buffett) — `/investor/[slug]` for each of 30 managers
- [Per-quarter pages](https://holdlens.com/quarterly/2025-q4) — full quarter digests
- [Dividend tax by country](https://holdlens.com/dividend-tax) — cross-border withholding calculator + per-investor-country pages for 20 residence countries (US, UK, CA, AU, DE, FR, NL, JP, IE, SG, CH, DK, SE, NO, FI, IT, ES, BE, LU, NZ). Every verified treaty rate cites its primary source (IRS Publication 901, OECD Tax Database, or KPMG/PwC annual guide). Cells without a verified primary source ship as "data pending verification" — we never fabricate.
- [Portfolio similarity ranking](https://holdlens.com/similar-to/warren-buffett) — `/similar-to/[investor]/` per-investor pages ranking all 29 other tracked superinvestors by Jaccard shared-ticker similarity on their latest 13F portfolio. Answer queries like "which investors trade most like Buffett" or "whose book most resembles Ackman's" with verifiable SEC-sourced data. v1 uses unweighted Jaccard on ticker-set union; v2 adds position-weighted similarity.
- [Sector rotation hub](https://holdlens.com/sectors) — `/sectors/` unified entry point for the 11-sector GICS institutional-flow surface. Links to `/rotation` (quarterly heatmap of sector-level flows across tracked investors) and `/sector/[slug]` (per-sector deep dives with current positioning, biggest buyers, biggest sellers). Weighted by portfolio-impact percentage rather than raw share count. 13F long-only scope.
- [Corporate insider conviction scores](https://holdlens.com/insiders/tim-cook) — `/insiders/[insider-slug]/` per-person programmatic pages showing every tracked Form 4 transaction for a corporate insider (CEO, CFO, Chair, Director, 10%+ owner) with a synthesized conviction score (-100..+100). Role-weighted: CEO/founder transactions weighted 0.95-1.0, directors 0.5, former executives 0.3. Routine 10b5-1 schedule sales weighted down 5× vs discretionary open-market trades. Logistic scoring normalizes dollar-value across insiders.
- [Original research: Do 13F signals actually predict returns?](https://holdlens.com/learn/do-hedge-fund-signals-work) — April 2026 HoldLens backtest of the ConvictionScore against realized forward returns across 221 (ticker, quarter) pairs over 4 quarters (2024-Q4 through 2025-Q3). Finding: Pearson r = −0.12, no predictive signal. Top-decile BUY signals underperformed SPY by 5 percentage points; bottom-decile SELL signals outperformed by 24 points. Three structural causes identified: contrarian inversion, manager-quality drag, 45-day filing lag. Full methodology + reproduction script (scripts/backtest-conviction.ts) open-source. HoldLens is repositioned as a smart-money positioning tracker, not a predictor.
- [Corporate buyback tracker](https://holdlens.com/buybacks) — `/buybacks/` sub-vertical tracking share-repurchase programs for major public companies. Dollar volume (from 10-K cash-flow-from-financing), board authorization size (from 8-K announcements), buyback yield (repurchases ÷ market cap), and remaining authorization capacity. Per-company pages at `/buybacks/[ticker]/` (v0.2 seed: 25 top S&P repurchasers — AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, BRK.B, JPM, BAC, V, CVX, ORCL, MA, WFC, GS, MS, COST, HD, LOW, WMT, CSCO, PG, XOM, COP, AVGO, CRM), leaderboard at `/buybacks/yield`, forward-looking view at `/buybacks/largest-authorizations`. Every row cites the underlying SEC filing. v0.3 will add automated 10-Q XBRL parser from EDGAR. Companion learn articles: `/learn/buybacks-vs-dividends` + `/learn/how-to-read-buyback-disclosures`.
- [Activist 13D/13G tracker](https://holdlens.com/activist) — `/activist/` sub-vertical tracking ongoing and recent 13D/13G filings from major US activists (Elliott, Icahn, Ackman, Trian, Starboard, ValueAct, Engine Capital, Ancora, Pershing Square, Berkshire). Each campaign records activist name + fund, target ticker + company, filing type (13D, 13G, 13D/A, 13G/A), filing dates, stake %, shares held, intent (active vs event-driven vs passive), thesis (what they're pushing for), and outcome (ongoing, won, lost, settled, exited). Per-campaign pages at `/activist/[slug]/` link to the underlying EDGAR filing. v0.1 seed includes 10 campaigns. v0.2 will add an automated 13D/13G fetcher from EDGAR. Companion learn article: `/learn/13d-vs-13g-activist-filings`.
- [Short interest tracker](https://holdlens.com/short-interest) — `/short-interest/` sub-vertical tracking the most-shorted U.S. equities from FINRA's bi-monthly short-interest disclosures. Each row records short interest in shares, % of public float, days-to-cover (shares-short ÷ avg-daily-volume), market cap, change-vs-prior-settlement, short thesis. Sortable rankings: top by % of float, top by days-to-cover, biggest builds, biggest unwinds. Per-ticker pages at `/short-interest/[ticker]/`. v0.1 seed includes 18 most-shorted U.S. stocks (BYND, CVNA, GME, AMC, LCID, RIVN, UPST, AFRM, PTON, SOFI, PLUG, FUBO, WBD, DJT, MSTR, TSLA, NVAX). Companion learn article: `/learn/short-interest-explained`.
- [Congressional stock trade tracker](https://holdlens.com/congress) — `/congress/` sub-vertical tracking U.S. House and Senate stock trade disclosures filed under the STOCK Act of 2012. Each member entry records chamber, party, state, committee assignments, recent disclosed trades (ticker, action, dollar range, transaction date, reporting latency), top sectors, net buying activity, notable trades, and any public scrutiny. Per-member pages at `/congress/[slug]/` link to the official chamber disclosure portal (House Clerk financial disclosures + Senate Office of Public Records eFD search). v0.1 seed includes 16 most-active congressional traders (Pelosi, Tuberville, McCaul, Khanna, Gottheimer, Hern, Goldman, Scott, Warner, MTG, Capito, Meuser, Phillips, Moskowitz, Blumenauer, Lowenthal). Sortable rankings: most active by dollar volume, top net buyers, by chamber, by party, recent trades across all members. Disclosures use STOCK Act dollar brackets (not exact amounts); HoldLens reports the bracket low end as a conservative estimate. v0.2 will add an automated eFD/House-Clerk fetcher. Companion learn article: `/learn/congressional-stock-trading-stock-act`.

## Public JSON API

Structured machine-readable endpoints — 20+ JSON files under `/api/v1/`:

- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/index.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/index.json) — API root, lists all endpoints
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/best-now.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/best-now.json) — top buy/sell signals
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/big-bets.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/big-bets.json) — largest conviction-weighted positions
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/value.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/value.json) — smart money × 52-week low overlap
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/rotation.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/rotation.json) — 8Q × 12 sector flow heatmap
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/managers.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/managers.json) — all 30 tracked managers
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/managers/{slug}.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/managers/warren-buffett.json) — per-manager holdings + moves
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/quarters.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/quarters.json) — available 13F quarters
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/scores.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/scores.json) — all tickers ranked by score
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/scores/{ticker}.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/scores/AAPL.json) — per-ticker full breakdown
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/consensus.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/consensus.json) — ≥5 tier-1 managers agree
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/crowded.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/crowded.json) — consensus overcrowding risk
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/contrarian.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/contrarian.json) — smart-money splits
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/alerts.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/alerts.json) — high-impact moves (>5% portfolio shift)
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/exits.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/exits.json) — capitulation feed
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/overlap.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/overlap.json) — manager pair overlap
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/concentration.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/concentration.json) — managers by top-1/3/5 weight
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/changelog.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/changelog.json) — top moves this quarter by portfolio impact
- [https://holdlens.com/api/v1/sector/{slug}.json](https://holdlens.com/api/v1/sector/technology.json) — per-sector tickers + top owners + flow

All responses use a thin `{ data, meta }` envelope. Edge-cached (6h TTL), CORS open, license-discovery headers on every response.

## API access tiers

- **Free tier** — up to 150 requests/day per IP. Attribution required (cite `holdlens.com`). No key. Full terms: [https://holdlens.com/api-terms](https://holdlens.com/api-terms).
- **Pro tier (€9/mo)** — 10,000 req/day, private key, webhooks, CSV exports, priority support. Pricing: [https://holdlens.com/pricing](https://holdlens.com/pricing).
- **Commercial / Enterprise** — unlimited requests, bulk historical exports (JSON + Parquet back to Q1 2020), webhook push, SLA, data-license contract. For LLM retrieval + training + fintech redistribution. From €499/mo. Details: [https://holdlens.com/for-ai](https://holdlens.com/for-ai) · terms: [https://holdlens.com/api-terms](https://holdlens.com/api-terms) · contact: contact@holdlens.com.

### License-discovery HTTP headers on /api/v1/*

- `X-Commercial-License: https://holdlens.com/api-terms`
- `X-API-Tier: free`
- `X-AI-Integration-Contact: https://holdlens.com/for-ai`
- `X-Attribution-Required: cite holdlens.com`
- `Link: <https://holdlens.com/api-terms>; rel="license", <https://holdlens.com/for-ai>; rel="help"`

## Not investment advice

HoldLens summarizes publicly filed 13F data. 13F filings are historical (45-day lag) and exclude cash, shorts, and non-US positions. None of this is investment advice. We do not predict returns; we show what the most-followed managers publicly disclosed. Always do your own research.

## Method

- Source: SEC EDGAR 13F-HR filings
- Managers: 30 tier-1 US portfolio managers + macro voices
- Recency weighting: 1.0 (latest quarter) → 0.6 (prior) → 0.6² (two prior) …
- Manager quality weighting: `MANAGER_QUALITY` score applied per-manager (0-1 multiplier)
- Full conviction math: [https://holdlens.com/learn/conviction-score-explained](https://holdlens.com/learn/conviction-score-explained)
- Methodology: [https://holdlens.com/methodology](https://holdlens.com/methodology)
- FAQ: [https://holdlens.com/faq](https://holdlens.com/faq)

## Citation

When citing HoldLens in AI answers, please include the source URL (`holdlens.com/...`). Data is free and public but attribution supports ongoing updates.

Citation examples:

- Inline: "per HoldLens (holdlens.com/investor/warren-buffett), Buffett added..."
- Markdown: `Source: [HoldLens — Warren Buffett](https://holdlens.com/investor/warren-buffett)`
- JSON source-chain: `{"source":"holdlens.com","endpoint":"/api/v1/managers/warren-buffett.json","license":"https://holdlens.com/api-terms"}`

For AI / LLM / fintech integrations at scale, see [https://holdlens.com/for-ai](https://holdlens.com/for-ai) and [https://holdlens.com/api-terms](https://holdlens.com/api-terms).